ZimbabweversusPakistan

26 Nov 2024 · ODI

Recorded result

Pakistan won by 10 wickets

Zimbabwe32.3 overs145/10 Pakistan18.2 overs148/0 Queens Sports Club, Bulawayo ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Pakistan more likely to win

27%Zimbabwe73%Pakistan

Why

On results in ODIs so far, Pakistan rate stronger than Zimbabwe (1,686 vs 1,427 on our results rating)
Zimbabwe are playing at home in Zimbabwe
In the last 10 ODIs between these sides, Pakistan won 8 and Zimbabwe won 2

Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Zimbabwe started on 25%; Zimbabwe batted first.

Zimbabwe’s chance of winning (%) · Pakistan is the rest

Zimbabwe's chances ranged from 0% to 27% during the match (Pakistan: 73% to 100%).

Biggest swings

1.3: Abrar Ahmed to J Gumbie, T Marumani out. Pakistan up from 73% to 84%.
3.5: Abrar Ahmed to J Gumbie, J Gumbie out. Pakistan up from 76% to 85%.
12.2: Agha Salman to D Myers, D Myers out. Pakistan up from 74% to 85%.

Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Zimbabwe145/10 Pakistan148/0

Innings 1

Zimbabwe

145/1032.3 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Zimbabwe batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Joylord Gumbiebowled · Abrar Ahmed 1 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Abrar Ahmed	5	14	1	0	35.71
Tadiwanashe Marumanirun out · Mohammad Rizwan, Tayyab Tahir · Abrar Ahmed 1 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Mohammad Rizwan, Tayyab Tahir	4	2	1	0	200.00
Dion Myerslbw · Salman Ali Agha 6 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Salman Ali Agha	33	30	6	0	110.00
Craig Ervinecaught · Mohammad Rizwan · Salman Ali Agha 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Mohammad Rizwan · b Salman Ali Agha	18	35	1	0	51.43

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Aamer Jamal0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	24	0	6.00	1
Abrar Ahmed2 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	8.0	2	33	4	4.13	2
Haris Rauf0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	26	0	6.50	2
Salman Ali Agha0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	7.0	0	26	3	3.71	0
Saim Ayub0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	16	1	4.00	0
Faisal Akram0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	5.3	0	19	1	3.45	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	6	6/0
2	4	10/1
3	4	14/1
4	9	23/2
5	7	30/2
6	0	30/2
7	7	37/2
8	3	40/2
9	4	44/2
10	7	51/2
11	5	56/2
12	4	60/2
13	2	62/3
14	4	66/3
15	2	68/4
16	3	71/4
17	3	74/4
18	9	83/4
19	1	84/4
20	7	91/4
21	10	101/5
22	7	108/5
23	3	111/5
24	5	116/5
25	3	119/5
26	3	122/6
27	3	125/6
28	0	125/7
29	3	128/7
30	4	132/8
31	1	133/8
32	6	139/9
33	6	145/10

Bringing the game to you…

Help make cricket’s story more accurate.