ZimbabweversusPakistan

26 Nov 2024 · ODI

Recorded result

Pakistan won by 10 wickets

Zimbabwe32.3 overs145/10 Pakistan18.2 overs148/0 Queens Sports Club, Bulawayo ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Pakistan more likely to win

27%Zimbabwe73%Pakistan

Why

On results in ODIs so far, Pakistan rate stronger than Zimbabwe (1,686 vs 1,427 on our results rating)
Zimbabwe are playing at home in Zimbabwe
In the last 10 ODIs between these sides, Pakistan won 8 and Zimbabwe won 2

Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Zimbabwe started on 25%; Zimbabwe batted first.

Zimbabwe’s chance of winning (%) · Pakistan is the rest

Zimbabwe's chances ranged from 0% to 27% during the match (Pakistan: 73% to 100%).

Biggest swings

1.3: Abrar Ahmed to J Gumbie, T Marumani out. Pakistan up from 73% to 84%.
3.5: Abrar Ahmed to J Gumbie, J Gumbie out. Pakistan up from 76% to 85%.
12.2: Agha Salman to D Myers, D Myers out. Pakistan up from 74% to 85%.

Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Zimbabwe145/10 Pakistan148/0

Innings 2

Pakistan

148/018.2 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Pakistan batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Saim Ayubnot out 17 fours · 3 sixes	not out	113*	62	17	3	182.26
Abdullah Shafiquenot out 4 fours · 0 sixes	not out	32*	48	4	0	66.67
Extras	byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 3 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0

Bowling
Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Blessing Muzarabani0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	5.0	0	30	0	6.00	1	0
Richard Ngarava0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	9	9/0
2	2	11/0
3	5	16/0
4	7	23/0
5	5	28/0
6	8	36/0
7	4	40/0
8	10	50/0
9	7	57/0
10	14	71/0
11	9	80/0
12	10	90/0
13	4	94/0
14	14	108/0
15	6	114/0
16	13	127/0
17	7	134/0
18	10	144/0
19	4	148/0

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