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West Indies tour of England · 2024 · Men
18 Jul 2024 · Test
Trent Bridge · Venue photographRecorded result
England more likely to win
Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Innings 3
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Zak Crawleyrun out · Jayden Seales · Jayden Seales0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Jayden Seales | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 75.00 |
 Ben Duckettlbw · Alzarri Joseph11 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Alzarri Joseph | 76 | 92 | 11 | 0 | 82.61 |
 Ollie Popecaught · Kevin Sinclair · Alzarri Joseph6 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kevin Sinclair · b Alzarri Joseph | 51 | 67 | 6 | 0 | 76.12 |
| caught · Kirk McKenzie · b Jason Holder |
| 122 |
| 178 |
| 10 |
| 0 |
| 68.54 |
 Harry Brookcaught · Joshua Da Silva · Jayden Seales13 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Joshua Da Silva · b Jayden Seales | 109 | 132 | 13 | 0 | 82.58 |
|---|
 Ben Stokescaught · Alzarri Joseph · Jayden Seales1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Alzarri Joseph · b Jayden Seales | 8 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 42.11 |
|---|
 Jamie Smithcaught · Joshua Da Silva · Kevin Sinclair0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Joshua Da Silva · b Kevin Sinclair | 6 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 85.71 |
|---|
 Chris Woakescaught · Jason Holder · Shamar Joseph1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jason Holder · b Shamar Joseph | 12 | 23 | 1 | 0 | 52.17 |
|---|
| Gus Atkinsonnot out 3 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 21* | 26 | 3 | 0 | 80.77 |
|---|
 Mark Woodbowled · Jayden Seales0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Jayden Seales | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Shoaib Bashirbowled · Jayden Seales 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Jayden Seales | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 4 · legbyes: 8 · wides: 1 · noballs: 4 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alzarri Joseph0 maidens · 0 wides · 2 no-balls | 20.0 | 0 | 103 | 2 | 5.15 | 0 | 2 |
| Jayden Seales1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 22.2 | 1 | 97 | 4 | 4.34 | 1 | 0 |
| Shamar Joseph0 maidens · 0 wides · 2 no-balls | 19.0 | 0 | 75 | 1 | 3.95 | 0 | 2 |
 Jason Holder2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 15.0 | 2 | 54 | 1 | 3.60 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin Sinclair1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 15.0 | 1 | 78 | 1 | 5.20 | 0 | 0 |
 Kraigg Brathwaite0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-8 (Zak Crawley, 1.4) · 2-127 (Ollie Pope, 25.1) · 3-140 (Ben Duckett, 27.2) · 4-329 (Harry Brook, 68.4) · 5-341 (Ben Stokes, 74.1) · 6-348 (Jamie Smith, 76.0) · 7-378 (Chris Woakes, 82.5) · 8-419 (Joe Root, 89.1) · 9-421 (Mark Wood, 90.5) · 10-425 (Shoaib Bashir, 92.2)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/0 |
| 2 | 5 | 9/1 |
| 3 | 6 | 15/1 |
| 4 | 13 | 28/1 |
| 5 | 5 | 33/1 |
| 6 | 5 | 38/1 |
| 7 | 4 | 42/1 |
| 8 | 3 | 45/1 |
| 9 | 10 | 55/1 |
| 10 | 3 | 58/1 |
| 11 | 1 | 59/1 |
| 12 | 1 | 60/1 |
| 13 | 7 | 67/1 |
| 14 | 5 | 72/1 |
| 15 | 3 | 75/1 |
| 16 | 2 | 77/1 |
| 17 | 6 | 83/1 |
| 18 | 12 | 95/1 |
| 19 | 10 | 105/1 |
| 20 | 4 | 109/1 |
| 21 | 2 | 111/1 |
| 22 | 5 | 116/1 |
| 23 | 1 | 117/1 |
| 24 | 2 | 119/1 |
| 25 | 8 | 127/1 |
| 26 | 4 | 131/2 |
| 27 | 9 | 140/2 |
| 28 | 2 | 142/3 |
| 29 | 2 | 144/3 |
| 30 | 7 | 151/3 |
| 31 | 8 | 159/3 |
| 32 | 7 | 166/3 |
| 33 | 3 | 169/3 |
| 34 | 1 | 170/3 |
| 35 | 2 | 172/3 |
| 36 | 7 | 179/3 |
| 37 | 1 | 180/3 |
| 38 | 2 | 182/3 |
| 39 | 7 | 189/3 |
| 40 | 3 | 192/3 |
| 41 | 1 | 193/3 |
| 42 | 8 | 201/3 |
| 43 | 5 | 206/3 |
| 44 | 6 | 212/3 |
| 45 | 7 | 219/3 |
| 46 | 0 | 219/3 |
| 47 | 6 | 225/3 |
| 48 | 4 | 229/3 |
| 49 | 3 | 232/3 |
| 50 | 10 | 242/3 |
| 51 | 6 | 248/3 |
| 52 | 7 | 255/3 |
| 53 | 3 | 258/3 |
| 54 | 1 | 259/3 |
| 55 | 6 | 265/3 |
| 56 | 7 | 272/3 |
| 57 | 3 | 275/3 |
| 58 | 6 | 281/3 |
| 59 | 3 | 284/3 |
| 60 | 4 | 288/3 |
| 61 | 0 | 288/3 |
| 62 | 4 | 292/3 |
| 63 | 1 | 293/3 |
| 64 | 7 | 300/3 |
| 65 | 3 | 303/3 |
| 66 | 11 | 314/3 |
| 67 | 8 | 322/3 |
| 68 | 5 | 327/3 |
| 69 | 2 | 329/4 |
| 70 | 4 | 333/4 |
| 71 | 4 | 337/4 |
| 72 | 3 | 340/4 |
| 73 | 1 | 341/4 |
| 74 | 0 | 341/4 |
| 75 | 3 | 344/5 |
| 76 | 4 | 348/6 |
| 77 | 6 | 354/6 |
| 78 | 8 | 362/6 |
| 79 | 2 | 364/6 |
| 80 | 3 | 367/6 |
| 81 | 1 | 368/6 |
| 82 | 4 | 372/6 |
| 83 | 6 | 378/7 |
| 84 | 10 | 388/7 |
| 85 | 9 | 397/7 |
| 86 | 8 | 405/7 |
| 87 | 2 | 407/7 |
| 88 | 6 | 413/7 |
| 89 | 6 | 419/7 |
| 90 | 0 | 419/8 |
| 91 | 2 | 421/9 |
| 92 | 4 | 425/9 |
| 93 | 0 | 425/10 |
Harry Brook: Dave Morton · Public domain
Ollie Pope: Kroome111 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ben Duckett: Charltonkyle · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jamie Smith: Dave Morton · Public domain
Mark Wood: Ytfc23 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jason Holder: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Joe Root: Dave Morton · Public domain
Zak Crawley: Dave Morton · Public domain
Chris Woakes: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kraigg Brathwaite: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ben Stokes: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Joshua Da Silva: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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