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Asia Pacific Cricket Champions Trophy · 2026 · Men
26 Jun 2026 · T20
Recorded result
Indonesia more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Indonesia started on 74%; Indonesia batted first.
Indonesia's chances ranged from 74% to 100% during the match (Uzbekistan: 0% to 26%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gede Priandanacaught · Saif Ullah · O Qudratov 12 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Saif Ullah · b O Qudratov | 70 | 43 | 12 | 2 | 162.79 |
| Rohit Sharmalbw · O Qudratov 8 fours · 3 sixes | lbw · b O Qudratov | 74 | 43 | 8 | 3 | 172.09 |
| Kavin Chaddhacaught · Luqman Hussan · O Qudratov 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Luqman Hussan · b O Qudratov | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 150.00 |
| Divit Nandacaught and bowled · Syed Ahzamul Haq 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Syed Ahzamul Haq | 15 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 136.36 |
| AA Rahayucaught · A Khasanov · I Mustafoev 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · A Khasanov · b I Mustafoev | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
| not out |
| 13* |
| 9 |
| 1 |
| 1 |
| 144.44 |
| Anjar Tadaruscaught · Syed Ahzamul Haq · I Mustafoev 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Syed Ahzamul Haq · b I Mustafoev | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Dharma Kesumanot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 6* | 7 | 1 | 0 | 85.71 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 8 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 25 · noballs: 4 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A Khasanov0 maidens · 4 wides · 2 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 32 | 0 | 10.67 | 4 | 2 |
| Syed Ahzamul Haq0 maidens · 11 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 38 | 1 | 12.67 | 11 | 0 |
| Luqman Hussan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 30 | 0 | 10.00 | 0 | 0 |
| A Musaev0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 8.50 | 1 | 1 |
| I Mustafoev0 maidens · 7 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 39 | 2 | 9.75 | 7 | 0 |
| K Xolmuradov0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 24 | 0 | 12.00 | 1 | 0 |
| O Qudratov0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 39 | 3 | 13.00 | 1 | 1 |
1-136 (Gede Priandana, 11.0) · 2-150 (Kavin Chaddha, 12.2) · 3-173 (Divit Nanda, 15.3) · 4-196 (Rohit Sharma, 16.5) · 5-202 (AA Rahayu, 17.3) · 6-205 (Anjar Tadarus, 18.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 8/0 |
| 2 | 19 | 27/0 |
| 3 | 9 | 36/0 |
| 4 | 9 | 45/0 |
| 5 | 15 | 60/0 |
| 6 | 14 | 74/0 |
| 7 | 7 | 81/0 |
| 8 | 10 | 91/0 |
| 9 | 12 | 103/0 |
| 10 | 14 | 117/0 |
| 11 | 19 | 136/1 |
| 12 | 10 | 146/1 |
| 13 | 6 | 152/2 |
| 14 | 11 | 163/2 |
| 15 | 10 | 173/2 |
| 16 | 9 | 182/3 |
| 17 | 14 | 196/4 |
| 18 | 9 | 205/6 |
| 19 | 15 | 220/6 |
| 20 | 7 | 227/6 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.