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Asia Pacific Cricket Champions Trophy · 2026 · Men
26 Jun 2026 · T20
Recorded result
Indonesia more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Indonesia started on 74%; Indonesia batted first.
Indonesia's chances ranged from 74% to 100% during the match (Uzbekistan: 0% to 26%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luqman Hussancaught · F Banunaek · Gede Arta 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · F Banunaek · b Gede Arta | 9 | 24 | 1 | 0 | 37.50 |
| Zain Amirlbw · Danilson Hawoe 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Danilson Hawoe | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| S Shermatovbowled · Danilson Hawoe 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Danilson Hawoe | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Saif Ullahbowled · Danilson Hawoe 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Danilson Hawoe | 6 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 85.71 |
| Syed Ahzamul Haqnot out 4 fours · 4 sixes | not out | 55* | 49 | 4 | 4 | 112.24 |
| A Musaevlbw · Gede Arta0 fours · 0 sixes |
| lbw · b Gede Arta |
| 1 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 50.00 |
| O Qudratovbowled · Gede Arta 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Gede Arta | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Nikhilnot out 1 fours · 3 sixes | not out | 35* | 33 | 1 | 3 | 106.06 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 5 · wides: 19 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danilson Hawoe0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 19 | 3 | 4.75 | 1 | 0 |
| F Banunaek1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 4.33 | 0 | 0 |
| R Jeyakumar0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 6.00 | 4 | 0 |
| Gede Arta0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 18 | 3 | 6.00 | 3 | 0 |
| Kavin Chaddha0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 11.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Divit Nanda0 maidens · 8 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 21 | 0 | 21.00 | 8 | 0 |
| Anjar Tadarus0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 3.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Gede Priandana0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 25 | 0 | 6.25 | 1 | 0 |
1-1 (Zain Amir, 0.3) · 2-1 (S Shermatov, 0.5) · 3-9 (Saif Ullah, 2.3) · 4-29 (Luqman Hussan, 8.3) · 5-31 (A Musaev, 9.0) · 6-42 (O Qudratov, 10.1)
Recorded target: 228 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 3/2 |
| 2 | 5 | 8/2 |
| 3 | 2 | 10/3 |
| 4 | 0 | 10/3 |
| 5 | 5 | 15/3 |
| 6 | 6 | 21/3 |
| 7 | 2 | 23/3 |
| 8 | 6 | 29/3 |
| 9 | 2 | 31/5 |
| 10 | 11 | 42/5 |
| 11 | 18 | 60/6 |
| 12 | 21 | 81/6 |
| 13 | 3 | 84/6 |
| 14 | 3 | 87/6 |
| 15 | 3 | 90/6 |
| 16 | 3 | 93/6 |
| 17 | 10 | 103/6 |
| 18 | 5 | 108/6 |
| 19 | 8 | 116/6 |
| 20 | 14 | 130/6 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.