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Gulf T20I Championship · 2024/25 · Men
20 Dec 2024 · T20
Too close to call
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Oman started on 48%; Oman batted first.
Oman's chances ranged from 1% to 61% during the match (Kuwait: 39% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ravija Sandaruwancaught · Vinayak Shukla · Jay Odedra 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Vinayak Shukla · b Jay Odedra | 5 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 62.50 |
| Clinto Antocaught · K Sonavale · Shakeel Ahmed 0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · K Sonavale · b Shakeel Ahmed | 6 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 200.00 |
| Meet Bhavsarcaught · Sufyan Mehmood · Samay Shrivastava 8 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Sufyan Mehmood · b Samay Shrivastava | 63 | 46 | 8 | 1 | 136.96 |
| Adnan Idreescaught · Hammad Mirza · Jay Odedra 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Hammad Mirza · b Jay Odedra | 17 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 89.47 |
| Muhammad Umarrun out · Hammad Mirza · Shakeel Ahmed 0 fours · 3 sixes | run out · Hammad Mirza | 36 | 30 | 0 | 3 | 120.00 |
| Usman Patelcaught · Hammad Mirza · Shakeel Ahmed 0 fours · 0 sixes |
|---|
| caught · Hammad Mirza · b Shakeel Ahmed |
| 5 |
| 7 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 71.43 |
| Bilal Tahirrun out · K Sonavale, Mohammad Nadeem · Mohammad Nadeem 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · K Sonavale, Mohammad Nadeem | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| Mohomad Aslamnot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 4* | 1 | 1 | 0 | 400.00 |
|---|
| Sayed Monibnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 2 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 4 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shakeel Ahmed0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 28 | 2 | 7.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Jay Odedra0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 15 | 2 | 3.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Mohammad Nadeem0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.3 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Aamir Kaleem0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 25 | 0 | 12.50 | 1 | 0 |
| Samay Shrivastava0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 30 | 1 | 7.50 | 2 | 0 |
| Sufyan Mehmood0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 11.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Wasim Ali0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 6.00 | 1 | 0 |
| K Sonavale0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 11.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-7 (Clinto Anto, 0.5) · 2-11 (Ravija Sandaruwan, 2.0) · 3-58 (Adnan Idrees, 8.4) · 4-132 (Meet Bhavsar, 17.1) · 5-138 (Muhammad Umar, 18.2) · 6-140 (Usman Patel, 19.0) · 7-140 (Bilal Tahir, 19.2)
Recorded target: 144 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | 7/1 |
| 2 | 4 | 11/2 |
| 3 | 14 | 25/2 |
| 4 | 4 | 29/2 |
| 5 | 8 | 37/2 |
| 6 | 11 | 48/2 |
| 7 | 3 | 51/2 |
| 8 | 5 | 56/2 |
| 9 | 4 | 60/3 |
| 10 | 5 | 65/3 |
| 11 | 3 | 68/3 |
| 12 | 11 | 79/3 |
| 13 | 16 | 95/3 |
| 14 | 6 | 101/3 |
| 15 | 16 | 117/3 |
| 16 | 11 | 128/3 |
| 17 | 4 | 132/3 |
| 18 | 5 | 137/4 |
| 19 | 3 | 140/6 |
| 20 | 4 | 144/7 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.