OmanversusKuwait

20 Dec 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Kuwait won by 3 wickets

Oman20.0 overs143/8 Kuwait19.3 overs144/7 ICC Academy, Dubai ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Too close to call

49%Oman51%Kuwait

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Kuwait rate stronger than Oman (1,564 vs 1,479 on our results rating)
In the last 3 T20 internationals between these sides, Oman won 3 and Kuwait won 0

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Oman started on 48%; Oman batted first.

Oman’s chance of winning (%) · Kuwait is the rest

Oman's chances ranged from 1% to 61% during the match (Kuwait: 39% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 1.6: Jay Odedra to R Sandaruwan, R Sandaruwan out. Oman up from 47% to 59%.
2nd inns 8.4: Jay Odedra to Adnan Idrees, Adnan Idrees out. Oman up from 34% to 48%.
2nd inns 19.3: Mohammad Nadeem to MNM Aslam, four by MNM Aslam. Kuwait up from 79% to 100%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Oman143/8 Kuwait144/7

Innings 1

Oman

143/820.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Oman batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
K Sonavalecaught · Adnan Idrees · Meet Bhavsar 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Adnan Idrees · b Meet Bhavsar	20	26	2	0	76.92
Jatinder Singhlbw · Meet Bhavsar 2 fours · 1 sixes	lbw · b Meet Bhavsar	27	25	2	1	108.00
Wasim Alilbw · Adnan Idrees 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Adnan Idrees	1	3	0	0	33.33
Mohammad Nadeemlbw · Mohomad Aslam 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Mohomad Aslam	11	11	0	0	100.00
Aamir Kaleemlbw · Adnan Idrees 2 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Adnan Idrees	13	12	2	0	108.33
Vinayak Shuklanot out3 fours · 3 sixes

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Yasin Patel0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	17	0	4.25	2
Mohamed Shafeeq0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	38	2	9.50	2
Mohomad Aslam0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	21	1	5.25	0
Sayed Monib0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	31	0	15.50	0
Meet Bhavsar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	22	2	5.50	0
Adnan Idrees0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	13	2	6.50	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	3	3/0
2	8	11/0
3	6	17/0
4	4	21/0
5	5	26/0
6	14	40/0
7	7	47/0
8	3	50/0
9	1	51/2
10	2	53/3
11	8	61/3
12	11	72/4
13	9	81/4
14	3	84/5
15	4	88/6
16	6	94/6
17	6	100/6
18	9	109/7
19	17	126/7
20	17	143/8

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