DurhamversusLancashire

12 Jul 2026 · T20

Old Trafford · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Lancashire won by 4 wickets

Durham20.0 overs132/6 Lancashire19.4 overs135/6 Old Trafford ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Durham started on 52%; Durham batted first.

Durham’s chance of winning (%) · Lancashire is the rest

Durham's chances ranged from 2% to 85% during the match (Lancashire: 15% to 98%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 8.6: S Turner to DL Collins, DL Collins out. Durham up from 63% to 84%.
2nd inns 12.4: S Turner to FMK Morris, FMK Morris out. Durham up from 63% to 83%.
2nd inns 18.1: H Graham to S Thomas, six by S Thomas. Lancashire up from 72% to 92%.

Tested on every ball of 360 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.172, against 0.236 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.