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Photo: Badbez
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
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ICC Men's T20 World Cup · 2024 · Men
12 Jun 2024 · T20
Brian Lara Stadium, Tarouba, Trinidad · Venue photographRecorded result
West Indies more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
West Indies started on 57%; West Indies batted first.
West Indies's chances ranged from 9% to 100% during the match (New Zealand: 0% to 91%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devon Conwaycaught · Roston Chase · Akeal Hosein 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Roston Chase · b Akeal Hosein | 5 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 62.50 |
| Finn Allencaught · Andre Russell · Alzarri Joseph 3 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Andre Russell · b Alzarri Joseph | 26 | 23 | 3 | 1 | 113.04 |
 Rachin Ravindracaught · Andre Russell · Gudakesh Motie0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Andre Russell · b Gudakesh Motie | 10 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 76.92 |
 Kane Williamsoncaught · Nicolas Pooran · Gudakesh Motie0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Nicolas Pooran · b Gudakesh Motie | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
| bowled · b Gudakesh Motie |
| 12 |
| 13 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 92.31 |
| Glenn Phillipscaught · Rovman Powell · Alzarri Joseph 3 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Rovman Powell · b Alzarri Joseph | 40 | 33 | 3 | 2 | 121.21 |
|---|
| James Neeshamcaught · Brandon King · Alzarri Joseph 0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Brandon King · b Alzarri Joseph | 10 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 90.91 |
|---|
| Mitchell Santnernot out 0 fours · 3 sixes | not out | 21* | 12 | 0 | 3 | 175.00 |
|---|
 Tim Southeecaught and bowled · Alzarri Joseph0 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Alzarri Joseph | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Trent Boultcaught · Roston Chase · Andre Russell0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Roston Chase · b Andre Russell | 7 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 175.00 |
|---|
 Lockie Fergusonnot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 3 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Akeal Hosein0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 21 | 1 | 5.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Romario Shepherd0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 36 | 0 | 12.00 | 2 | 0 |
 Andre Russell0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 30 | 1 | 7.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Alzarri Joseph0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 19 | 4 | 4.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Gudakesh Motie0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 25 | 3 | 6.25 | 0 | 0 |
 Roston Chase0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4.00 | 1 | 0 |
1-20 (Devon Conway, 3.0) · 2-34 (Finn Allen, 5.4) · 3-39 (Kane Williamson, 6.4) · 4-54 (Rachin Ravindra, 8.5) · 5-63 (Daryl Mitchell, 11.0) · 6-85 (James Neesham, 15.1) · 7-108 (Glenn Phillips, 17.4) · 8-108 (Tim Southee, 17.5) · 9-117 (Trent Boult, 19.0)
Recorded target: 150 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 3/0 |
| 2 | 9 | 12/0 |
| 3 | 8 | 20/1 |
| 4 | 5 | 25/1 |
| 5 | 7 | 32/1 |
| 6 | 4 | 36/2 |
| 7 | 9 | 45/3 |
| 8 | 5 | 50/3 |
| 9 | 5 | 55/4 |
| 10 | 3 | 58/4 |
| 11 | 5 | 63/5 |
| 12 | 4 | 67/5 |
| 13 | 6 | 73/5 |
| 14 | 8 | 81/5 |
| 15 | 4 | 85/5 |
| 16 | 2 | 87/6 |
| 17 | 13 | 100/6 |
| 18 | 8 | 108/8 |
| 19 | 9 | 117/9 |
| 20 | 19 | 136/9 |
Roston Chase: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Lockie Ferguson: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Rachin Ravindra: JaumeBG · CC BY-SA 4.0
Trent Boult: YellowMonkey/Blnguyen · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tim Southee: YellowMonkey/Blnguyen · CC BY-SA 4.0
Andre Russell: The Madras · CC BY-SA 3.0
Kane Williamson: Mark Lockett · CC BY-SA 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
