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ICC Men's T20 World Cup · 2024 · Men
12 Jun 2024 · T20
Brian Lara Stadium, Tarouba, Trinidad · Venue photographRecorded result
West Indies more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
West Indies started on 57%; West Indies batted first.
West Indies's chances ranged from 9% to 100% during the match (New Zealand: 0% to 91%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Kingcaught · Devon Conway · James Neesham 0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Devon Conway · b James Neesham | 9 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 75.00 |
| Johnson Charlesbowled · Trent Boult 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Trent Boult | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Nicolas Poorancaught · Devon Conway · Tim Southee 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Devon Conway · b Tim Southee | 17 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 141.67 |
 Roston Chasecaught · Rachin Ravindra · Lockie Ferguson0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Rachin Ravindra · b Lockie Ferguson | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Rovman Powellcaught · Devon Conway · Tim Southee 0 fours · 0 sixes |
| caught · Devon Conway · b Tim Southee |
| 1 |
| 5 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 20.00 |
| Sherfane Rutherfordnot out 2 fours · 6 sixes | not out | 68* | 39 | 2 | 6 | 174.36 |
|---|
| Akeal Hoseincaught · James Neesham · Mitchell Santner 0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · James Neesham · b Mitchell Santner | 15 | 17 | 0 | 1 | 88.24 |
|---|
 Andre Russellcaught · Lockie Ferguson · Trent Boult2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Lockie Ferguson · b Trent Boult | 14 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 200.00 |
|---|
| Romario Shepherdlbw · Lockie Ferguson 0 fours · 1 sixes | lbw · b Lockie Ferguson | 13 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Alzarri Josephbowled · Trent Boult 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Trent Boult | 6 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Gudakesh Motienot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 3 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Trent Boult1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 16 | 3 | 4.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Tim Southee0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 21 | 2 | 5.25 | 0 | 0 |
 Lockie Ferguson0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 27 | 2 | 6.75 | 2 | 0 |
| James Neesham0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 27 | 1 | 6.75 | 1 | 0 |
| Glenn Phillips0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 9.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Mitchell Santner0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 27 | 1 | 13.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Daryl Mitchell0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 19.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-1 (Johnson Charles, 1.0) · 2-20 (Nicolas Pooran, 3.5) · 3-21 (Roston Chase, 4.3) · 4-22 (Rovman Powell, 5.4) · 5-30 (Brandon King, 6.3) · 6-58 (Akeal Hosein, 11.0) · 7-76 (Andre Russell, 12.3) · 8-103 (Romario Shepherd, 16.2) · 9-112 (Alzarri Joseph, 17.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| 2 | 2 | 3/1 |
| 3 | 9 | 12/1 |
| 4 | 8 | 20/2 |
| 5 | 2 | 22/3 |
| 6 | 1 | 23/4 |
| 7 | 9 | 32/5 |
| 8 | 4 | 36/5 |
| 9 | 11 | 47/5 |
| 10 | 2 | 49/5 |
| 11 | 9 | 58/6 |
| 12 | 17 | 75/6 |
| 13 | 2 | 77/7 |
| 14 | 4 | 81/7 |
| 15 | 10 | 91/7 |
| 16 | 12 | 103/7 |
| 17 | 4 | 107/8 |
| 18 | 5 | 112/9 |
| 19 | 19 | 131/9 |
| 20 | 18 | 149/9 |
Roston Chase: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Lockie Ferguson: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Rachin Ravindra: JaumeBG · CC BY-SA 4.0
Trent Boult: YellowMonkey/Blnguyen · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tim Southee: YellowMonkey/Blnguyen · CC BY-SA 4.0
Andre Russell: The Madras · CC BY-SA 3.0
Kane Williamson: Mark Lockett · CC BY-SA 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
