PakistanversusBangladesh

30 May 2025 · T20

Gaddafi Stadium, Lahore · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Pakistan won by 57 runs

Pakistan20.0 overs201/6 Bangladesh19.0 overs144/9 Gaddafi Stadium, Lahore ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Pakistan more likely to win

58%Pakistan42%Bangladesh

Why

In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Pakistan won 9 and Bangladesh won 1
On results in T20 internationals so far, Bangladesh rate stronger than Pakistan (1,578 vs 1,496 on our results rating)
Pakistan are playing at home in Pakistan

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Pakistan started on 58%; Pakistan batted first.

Pakistan’s chance of winning (%) · Bangladesh is the rest

Pakistan's chances ranged from 48% to 100% during the match (Bangladesh: 0% to 52%).

Biggest swings

1.6: Shamim Hossain to Saim Ayub, Saim Ayub out. Bangladesh up from 41% to 51%.
2nd inns 3.5: Haris Rauf to Parvez Hossain Emon, Parvez Hossain Emon out. Pakistan up from 52% to 64%.
2nd inns 4.3: Faheem Ashraf to Tanzid Hasan, Tanzid Hasan out. Pakistan up from 65% to 77%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Pakistan201/6 Bangladesh144/9

Innings 2

Bangladesh

144/919.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Bangladesh batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Tanzid Hasancaught · Abrar Ahmed · Fahim Ashraf 5 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Abrar Ahmed · b Fahim Ashraf	33	19	5	1	173.68
Parvez Hossain Emoncaught · Hasan Ali · Haris Rauf 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Hasan Ali · b Haris Rauf	8	7	1	0	114.29
Litton Dascaught · Haris Rauf · Hasan Ali 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Haris Rauf · b Hasan Ali	6	9	0	0	66.67
Tawhid Hridoylbw · Abrar Ahmed 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Abrar Ahmed	5	5	0	0	100.00

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	NB
Salman Ali Agha0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	20	0	10.00	0
Hasan Ali0 maidens · 0 wides · 2 no-balls	2.0	21	1	10.50	2
Fahim Ashraf0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	8	1	4.00	0
Haris Rauf0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	23	1	11.50	0
Abrar Ahmed0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	19	3	4.75	0
Shadab Khan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	13	1	6.50	0
Khushdil Shah0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	25	1	8.33	0
Saim Ayub0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	14	1	7.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	17	17/0
2	15	32/0
3	6	38/0
4	7	45/1
5	3	48/2
6	6	54/3
7	6	60/5
8	3	63/5
9	7	70/6
10	8	78/7
11	4	82/7
12	5	87/7
13	16	103/7
14	7	110/8
15	2	112/8
16	3	115/8
17	4	119/8
18	15	134/8
19	10	144/9

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