PakistanversusBangladesh

30 May 2025 · T20

Gaddafi Stadium, Lahore · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Pakistan won by 57 runs

Pakistan20.0 overs201/6 Bangladesh19.0 overs144/9 Gaddafi Stadium, Lahore ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Pakistan more likely to win

58%Pakistan42%Bangladesh

Why

In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Pakistan won 9 and Bangladesh won 1
On results in T20 internationals so far, Bangladesh rate stronger than Pakistan (1,578 vs 1,496 on our results rating)
Pakistan are playing at home in Pakistan

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Pakistan started on 58%; Pakistan batted first.

Pakistan’s chance of winning (%) · Bangladesh is the rest

Pakistan's chances ranged from 48% to 100% during the match (Bangladesh: 0% to 52%).

Biggest swings

1.6: Shamim Hossain to Saim Ayub, Saim Ayub out. Bangladesh up from 41% to 51%.
2nd inns 3.5: Haris Rauf to Parvez Hossain Emon, Parvez Hossain Emon out. Pakistan up from 52% to 64%.
2nd inns 4.3: Faheem Ashraf to Tanzid Hasan, Tanzid Hasan out. Pakistan up from 65% to 77%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Pakistan201/6 Bangladesh144/9

Innings 1

Pakistan

201/620.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Pakistan batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Sahibzada Farhancaught · Litton Das · Rishad Hossain 4 fours · 6 sixes	caught · Litton Das · b Rishad Hossain	74	41	4	6	180.49
Saim Ayubrun out · Litton Das, Tawhid Hridoy · Shamim Hossain 0 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Litton Das, Tawhid Hridoy	4	4	0	0	100.00
Mohammad Hariscaught · Rishad Hossain · Tanzim Hasan Sakib 4 fours · 2 sixes	caught · Rishad Hossain · b Tanzim Hasan Sakib	41	25	4	2	164.00
Hassan Nawaznot out 2 fours · 3 sixes	not out	51*	26	2	3	196.15
Salman Ali Aghalbw · Hasan Mahmud 3 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Hasan Mahmud	19	12	3	0	158.33

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Mehedi Hasan0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	38	0	9.50	1
Shariful Islam0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	0.3	2	0	4.00	0
Shamim Hossain0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.3	28	0	8.00	0
Hasan Mahmud0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	47	2	11.75	1
Tanzim Hasan Sakib0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	36	2	9.00	0
Rishad Hossain0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	50	1	12.50	2

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	7	7/0
2	5	12/1
3	14	26/1
4	17	43/1
5	8	51/1
6	16	67/1
7	8	75/1
8	5	80/1
9	11	91/1
10	16	107/1
11	8	115/2
12	14	129/3
13	11	140/3
14	15	155/3
15	6	161/3
16	8	169/4
17	6	175/4
18	9	184/4
19	6	190/5
20	11	201/6

Bringing the game to you…

Help make cricket’s story more accurate.