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ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2 · 2024 · Men
16 Sept 2024 · ODI
Recorded result
Nepal more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Canada started on 36%; Canada batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kushal Bhurtellbw · Dillon Heyliger0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Dillon Heyliger | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 10.00 |
| Aasif Sheikhcaught · Ansh Patel · Dillon Heyliger 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ansh Patel · b Dillon Heyliger | 20 | 30 | 3 | 0 | 66.67 |
| B Sharkilbw · Akhil Kumar 2 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Akhil Kumar | 18 | 30 | 2 | 0 | 60.00 |
 Rohit Kumarcaught · Pargat Singh · Dillon Heyliger1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Pargat Singh · b Dillon Heyliger | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
 |
Canada's chances ranged from 22% to 100% during the match (Nepal: 0% to 78%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Navneet Dhaliwal · b Saad Bin Zafar |
| 12 |
| 41 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 29.27 |
 Dipendra Singh Aireecaught · Shreyas Movva · Ansh Patel0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shreyas Movva · b Ansh Patel | 8 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 80.00 |
|---|
 Sompal Kamilbw · Ansh Patel0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Ansh Patel | 6 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 24.00 |
|---|
 Sandeep Lamichhanebowled · Dillon Heyliger1 fours · 2 sixes | bowled · b Dillon Heyliger | 22 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 137.50 |
|---|
 Gulsan Jhalbw · Dillon Heyliger1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Dillon Heyliger | 15 | 27 | 1 | 0 | 55.56 |
|---|
 Karan KCcaught · Shreyas Movva · Akhil Kumar2 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Shreyas Movva · b Akhil Kumar | 27 | 24 | 2 | 2 | 112.50 |
|---|
| Lalit Rajbanshinot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 4 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 9 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaleem Sana1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 1 | 29 | 0 | 3.63 | 0 | 0 |
| Dillon Heyliger0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 31 | 5 | 3.10 | 5 | 0 |
| Akhil Kumar0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.1 | 0 | 11 | 2 | 2.13 | 1 | 0 |
| Ansh Patel0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 36 | 2 | 4.50 | 2 | 0 |
 Saad Bin Zafar0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 36 | 1 | 4.00 | 1 | 0 |
1-9 (Kushal Bhurtel, 3.5) · 2-30 (Aasif Sheikh, 7.5) · 3-43 (Rohit Kumar, 10.0) · 4-51 (B Sharki, 14.3) · 5-62 (Dipendra Singh Airee, 17.2) · 6-80 (Kushal Malla, 25.0) · 7-80 (Sompal Kami, 25.1) · 8-120 (Sandeep Lamichhane, 31.5) · 9-124 (Gulsan Jha, 33.1) · 10-150 (Karan KC, 40.1)
Recorded target: 254 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/0 |
| 2 | 2 | 3/0 |
| 3 | 5 | 8/0 |
| 4 | 1 | 9/1 |
| 5 | 9 | 18/1 |
| 6 | 2 | 20/1 |
| 7 | 4 | 24/1 |
| 8 | 6 | 30/2 |
| 9 | 2 | 32/2 |
| 10 | 11 | 43/3 |
| 11 | 2 | 45/3 |
| 12 | 1 | 46/3 |
| 13 | 1 | 47/3 |
| 14 | 4 | 51/3 |
| 15 | 2 | 53/4 |
| 16 | 2 | 55/4 |
| 17 | 5 | 60/4 |
| 18 | 2 | 62/5 |
| 19 | 1 | 63/5 |
| 20 | 4 | 67/5 |
| 21 | 4 | 71/5 |
| 22 | 1 | 72/5 |
| 23 | 2 | 74/5 |
| 24 | 3 | 77/5 |
| 25 | 3 | 80/6 |
| 26 | 13 | 93/7 |
| 27 | 3 | 96/7 |
| 28 | 13 | 109/7 |
| 29 | 4 | 113/7 |
| 30 | 4 | 117/7 |
| 31 | 1 | 118/7 |
| 32 | 2 | 120/8 |
| 33 | 3 | 123/8 |
| 34 | 1 | 124/9 |
| 35 | 1 | 125/9 |
| 36 | 1 | 126/9 |
| 37 | 5 | 131/9 |
| 38 | 7 | 138/9 |
| 39 | 1 | 139/9 |
| 40 | 11 | 150/9 |
| 41 | 0 | 150/10 |
Gulsan Jha: Elison Pokhrel · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sompal Kami: सरोज कुमार ढकाल · CC BY-SA 3.0
Sandeep Lamichhane: Deshsanchar · CC BY 3.0
Rohit Kumar: Cricnepal · CC BY-SA 4.0
Saad Bin Zafar: Apnagm · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kushal Bhurtel: Kushal Bhurtel · CC BY-SA 4.0
Karan KC: Helloworld3377 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Dipendra Singh Airee: Dipendra Singh Airee · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kushal Malla: Hamro Khelkud · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
