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ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2 · 2024 · Men
16 Sept 2024 · ODI
Recorded result
Nepal more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Canada started on 36%; Canada batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Johnsoncaught and bowled · Lalit Rajbanshi 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Lalit Rajbanshi | 10 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 62.50 |
| Navneet Dhaliwalcaught · Kushal Bhurtel · Gulsan Jha 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kushal Bhurtel · b Gulsan Jha | 48 | 90 | 4 | 0 | 53.33 |
| Pargat Singhlbw · Sandeep Lamichhane 0 fours · 1 sixes | lbw · b Sandeep Lamichhane | 17 | 35 | 0 | 1 | 48.57 |
| Harsh Thakerrun out · Aasif Sheikh, Dipendra Singh Airee · Dipendra Singh Airee 1 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Aasif Sheikh, Dipendra Singh Airee | 27 | 61 | 1 | 0 | 44.26 |
| Nicholas Kirtonnot out 3 fours · 6 sixes | not out | 73* | 44 | 3 | 6 | 165.91 |
Canada's chances ranged from 22% to 100% during the match (Nepal: 0% to 78%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Gulsan Jha · b Rohit Kumar |
| 4 |
| 6 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 66.67 |
| Dillon Heyligercaught · Kushal Bhurtel · Lalit Rajbanshi 2 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Kushal Bhurtel · b Lalit Rajbanshi | 30 | 27 | 2 | 2 | 111.11 |
|---|
 Saad Bin Zafarcaught · Karan KC · Sompal Kami1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Karan KC · b Sompal Kami | 17 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 130.77 |
|---|
| Kaleem Sanacaught · Rohit Kumar · Sompal Kami 0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Rohit Kumar · b Sompal Kami | 10 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 125.00 |
|---|
| Akhil Kumarnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 2 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 11 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Karan KC1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 1 | 24 | 0 | 4.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Sompal Kami0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 40 | 2 | 5.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Lalit Rajbanshi0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 32 | 2 | 3.56 | 2 | 0 |
 Sandeep Lamichhane0 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 48 | 1 | 5.33 | 2 | 1 |
 Gulsan Jha0 maidens · 6 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 18 | 1 | 3.60 | 6 | 0 |
 Kushal Malla0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 3.33 | 0 | 0 |
 Rohit Kumar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 43 | 1 | 8.60 | 0 | 0 |
 Dipendra Singh Airee0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 33 | 0 | 6.60 | 0 | 0 |
1-13 (Aaron Johnson, 6.1) · 2-55 (Pargat Singh, 16.5) · 3-109 (Navneet Dhaliwal, 32.1) · 4-126 (Harsh Thaker, 35.3) · 5-133 (Shreyas Movva, 37.0) · 6-172 (Dillon Heyliger, 43.1) · 7-220 (Saad Bin Zafar, 47.1) · 8-252 (Kaleem Sana, 49.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/0 |
| 2 | 5 | 6/0 |
| 3 | 1 | 7/0 |
| 4 | 1 | 8/0 |
| 5 | 0 | 8/0 |
| 6 | 5 | 13/0 |
| 7 | 1 | 14/1 |
| 8 | 3 | 17/1 |
| 9 | 7 | 24/1 |
| 10 | 5 | 29/1 |
| 11 | 10 | 39/1 |
| 12 | 3 | 42/1 |
| 13 | 1 | 43/1 |
| 14 | 3 | 46/1 |
| 15 | 3 | 49/1 |
| 16 | 4 | 53/1 |
| 17 | 3 | 56/2 |
| 18 | 1 | 57/2 |
| 19 | 4 | 61/2 |
| 20 | 4 | 65/2 |
| 21 | 1 | 66/2 |
| 22 | 5 | 71/2 |
| 23 | 7 | 78/2 |
| 24 | 2 | 80/2 |
| 25 | 2 | 82/2 |
| 26 | 3 | 85/2 |
| 27 | 2 | 87/2 |
| 28 | 9 | 96/2 |
| 29 | 3 | 99/2 |
| 30 | 4 | 103/2 |
| 31 | 5 | 108/2 |
| 32 | 1 | 109/2 |
| 33 | 4 | 113/3 |
| 34 | 7 | 120/3 |
| 35 | 4 | 124/3 |
| 36 | 4 | 128/4 |
| 37 | 5 | 133/5 |
| 38 | 3 | 136/5 |
| 39 | 8 | 144/5 |
| 40 | 5 | 149/5 |
| 41 | 11 | 160/5 |
| 42 | 4 | 164/5 |
| 43 | 8 | 172/5 |
| 44 | 7 | 179/6 |
| 45 | 5 | 184/6 |
| 46 | 19 | 203/6 |
| 47 | 17 | 220/6 |
| 48 | 13 | 233/7 |
| 49 | 15 | 248/7 |
| 50 | 5 | 253/8 |
Gulsan Jha: Elison Pokhrel · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sompal Kami: सरोज कुमार ढकाल · CC BY-SA 3.0
Sandeep Lamichhane: Deshsanchar · CC BY 3.0
Rohit Kumar: Cricnepal · CC BY-SA 4.0
Saad Bin Zafar: Apnagm · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kushal Bhurtel: Kushal Bhurtel · CC BY-SA 4.0
Karan KC: Helloworld3377 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Dipendra Singh Airee: Dipendra Singh Airee · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kushal Malla: Hamro Khelkud · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
