ZimbabweversusKenya

24 Oct 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Zimbabwe won by 61 runs

Zimbabwe20.0 overs163/7 Kenya19.1 overs102/10 Gymkhana Club Ground, Nairobi ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Too close to call

51%Zimbabwe49%Kenya

Why

In the last 2 T20 internationals between these sides, Zimbabwe won 2 and Kenya won 0
Kenya are playing at home in Kenya
On results in T20 internationals so far, Kenya rate stronger than Zimbabwe (1,592 vs 1,578 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Zimbabwe started on 49%; Zimbabwe batted first.

Zimbabwe’s chance of winning (%) · Kenya is the rest

Zimbabwe's chances ranged from 43% to 100% during the match (Kenya: 0% to 57%).

Biggest swings

3.2: LN Oluoch to BJ Bennett, BJ Bennett out. Kenya up from 35% to 43%.
3.3: LN Oluoch to D Myers, D Myers out. Kenya up from 43% to 51%.
5.4: F Mutua to T Marumani, T Marumani out. Kenya up from 49% to 57%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Zimbabwe163/7 Kenya102/10

Innings 1

Zimbabwe

163/720.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Zimbabwe batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Brian Bennettbowled · Lucas Oluoch 2 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Lucas Oluoch	13	10	2	0	130.00
Tadiwanashe Marumanicaught · Rakep Patel · Francis Mutua 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Rakep Patel · b Francis Mutua	14	15	2	0	93.33
Dion Myerscaught · Rushab Patel · Lucas Oluoch 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Rushab Patel · b Lucas Oluoch	0	1	0	0	0.00
Sikandar Razastumped · Irfan Karim · Pushkar Sharma 2 fours · 1 sixes	stumped · Irfan Karim · b Pushkar Sharma	27	28	2	1	96.43
Ryan Burlcaught · Rushab Patel · Sachin Gill 5 fours · 1 sixes

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Sachin Gill0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	32	1	8.00	3
Lucas Oluoch0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	37	4	9.25	4
Francis Mutua0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	24	1	12.00	2
Shem Ngoche0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	9	0	4.50	0
Pushkar Sharma0 maidens · 6 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	28	1	7.00	6
Vraj Patel0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	32	0	8.00	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	9	9/0
2	9	18/0
3	9	27/0
4	2	29/2
5	5	34/2
6	8	42/3
7	6	48/3
8	16	64/3
9	3	67/3
10	7	74/3
11	7	81/3
12	10	91/3
13	16	107/3
14	1	108/4
15	3	111/4
16	11	122/4
17	6	128/4
18	13	141/5
19	9	150/6
20	13	163/7

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