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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Sub Regional Africa Qualifier · 2024/25 · Men
24 Oct 2024 · T20
Recorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Zimbabwe started on 49%; Zimbabwe batted first.
Zimbabwe's chances ranged from 43% to 100% during the match (Kenya: 0% to 57%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Pushkar Sharmacaught · Sikandar Raza · Trevor Gwandu1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sikandar Raza · b Trevor Gwandu | 9 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
| Dhiren Gondariacaught · Tashinga Musekiwa · Richard Ngarava 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tashinga Musekiwa · b Richard Ngarava | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
| Rushab Patelcaught · Ryan Burl · Sikandar Raza 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ryan Burl · b Sikandar Raza | 5 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 45.45 |
 Rakep Patelcaught · Sikandar Raza · Blessing Muzarabani2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sikandar Raza · b Blessing Muzarabani | 12 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 100.00 |
| bowled · b Sikandar Raza |
| 3 |
| 5 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 60.00 |
| Sachin Gillcaught · Brian Bennett · Brandon Mavuta 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Brian Bennett · b Brandon Mavuta | 13 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 68.42 |
|---|
| Irfan Karimbowled · Brandon Mavuta 2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Brandon Mavuta | 16 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 94.12 |
|---|
| Lucas Oluochcaught · WP Masakadza · Trevor Gwandu 1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · WP Masakadza · b Trevor Gwandu | 24 | 19 | 1 | 1 | 126.32 |
|---|
| Shem Ngochecaught · Dion Myers · Sikandar Raza 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Dion Myers · b Sikandar Raza | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Francis Mutuacaught and bowled · Trevor Gwandu 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Trevor Gwandu | 6 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Vraj Patelnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 6 | 0 | 0 | 16.67 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 6 · wides: 3 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richard Ngarava0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.4 | 0 | 23 | 1 | 6.27 | 0 | 0 |
| Trevor Gwandu0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.1 | 0 | 10 | 3 | 3.16 | 1 | 0 |
| Blessing Muzarabani0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 14 | 1 | 3.50 | 1 | 0 |
 Sikandar Raza0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 17 | 3 | 4.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandon Mavuta0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 18 | 2 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Brian Bennett0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.2 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 10.50 | 1 | 0 |
1-9 (Pushkar Sharma, 1.5) · 2-15 (Dhiren Gondaria, 2.5) · 3-32 (Rakep Patel, 5.3) · 4-34 (Rushab Patel, 6.1) · 5-42 (Sachin Bhudia, 8.2) · 6-60 (Sachin Gill, 11.5) · 7-80 (Irfan Karim, 14.0) · 8-81 (Shem Ngoche, 14.2) · 9-98 (Francis Mutua, 17.4) · 10-102 (Lucas Oluoch, 19.1)
Recorded target: 164 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | 7/0 |
| 2 | 3 | 10/1 |
| 3 | 7 | 17/2 |
| 4 | 3 | 20/2 |
| 5 | 8 | 28/2 |
| 6 | 6 | 34/3 |
| 7 | 4 | 38/4 |
| 8 | 3 | 41/4 |
| 9 | 5 | 46/5 |
| 10 | 3 | 49/5 |
| 11 | 5 | 54/5 |
| 12 | 8 | 62/6 |
| 13 | 9 | 71/6 |
| 14 | 9 | 80/7 |
| 15 | 3 | 83/8 |
| 16 | 3 | 86/8 |
| 17 | 9 | 95/8 |
| 18 | 4 | 99/9 |
| 19 | 3 | 102/9 |
| 20 | 0 | 102/10 |
Pushkar Sharma: SAKSHI0989 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Clive Madande: Amuzujoe · CC BY-SA 4.0
Rakep Patel: Amuzujoe · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sikandar Raza: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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