Brisbane HeatversusPerth Scorchers

10 Jan 2024 · T20

Brisbane Cricket Ground · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Brisbane Heat won by 23 runs

Brisbane Heat20.0 overs191/6 Perth Scorchers20.0 overs168/9 Brisbane Cricket Ground ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Brisbane Heat started on 45%; Brisbane Heat batted first.

Brisbane Heat’s chance of winning (%) · Perth Scorchers is the rest

Brisbane Heat's chances ranged from 29% to 100% during the match (Perth Scorchers: 0% to 71%).

Biggest swings

1.4: JP Behrendorff to UT Khawaja, UT Khawaja out. Perth Scorchers up from 45% to 57%.
2nd inns 2.6: MG Neser to Z Crawley, Z Crawley out. Brisbane Heat up from 61% to 72%.
2nd inns 15.3: MP Kuhnemann to C Connolly, C Connolly out. Brisbane Heat up from 63% to 78%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Match details

Toss: Brisbane Heat chose to bat
Player of the match: Michael Neser
match referees: Kepler Wessels
reserve umpires: SE Dionysius
tv umpires: P Wilson
umpires: D Taylor, GJ Davidson

Match history & source

On 10 Jan 2024, Brisbane Heat played Perth Scorchers at Brisbane Cricket Ground. Recorded result: Brisbane Heat won by 23 runs.

Calculation date: 9 Nov 2026.

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