SurreyversusThe Blaze

11 Jul 2025 · T20

Trent Bridge · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Surrey won by 10 runs

Surrey20.0 overs132/9 The Blaze20.0 overs122/5 Trent Bridge ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Surrey started on 43%; Surrey batted first.

Surrey’s chance of winning (%) · The Blaze is the rest

Surrey's chances ranged from 12% to 98% during the match (The Blaze: 2% to 88%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 17.1: K Moore to H Graham, H Graham out. Surrey up from 27% to 40%.
2nd inns 18.1: R MacDonald-Gay to E Claridge, 0 runs to E Claridge. Surrey up from 39% to 51%.
2nd inns 18.5: R MacDonald-Gay to E Claridge, E Claridge out. Surrey up from 77% to 90%.

Tested on every ball of 360 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.172, against 0.236 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.