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West Indies tour of England · 2025 · Men
1 Jun 2025 · ODI
Sophia Gardens, Cardiff · Venue photographRecorded result
England more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
West Indies started on 34%; West Indies batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jamie Smithcaught · Shai Hope · Jayden Seales0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shai Hope · b Jayden Seales | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
 Ben Duckettcaught · Jayden Seales · Matthew Forde0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jayden Seales · b Matthew Forde | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
 Joe Rootnot out21 fours · 2 sixes | not out | 166* | 139 | 21 | 2 | 119.42 |
 Harry Brookcaught · Jayden Seales · Alzarri Joseph7 fours · 1 sixes |
West Indies's chances ranged from 1% to 92% during the match (England: 8% to 99%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Jayden Seales · b Alzarri Joseph |
| 47 |
| 36 |
| 7 |
| 1 |
| 130.56 |
 Jos Buttlerbowled · Alzarri Joseph0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Alzarri Joseph | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Jacob Bethelllbw · Roston Chase 1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Roston Chase | 17 | 28 | 1 | 0 | 60.71 |
|---|
 Will Jackslbw · Alzarri Joseph2 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Alzarri Joseph | 49 | 58 | 2 | 0 | 84.48 |
|---|
 Brydon Carsecaught · Jayden Seales · Alzarri Joseph0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jayden Seales · b Alzarri Joseph | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 28.57 |
|---|
 Adil Rashidnot out2 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 10* | 11 | 2 | 0 | 90.91 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 8 · legbyes: 5 · wides: 7 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Seales1 maidens · 3 wides · 1 no-balls | 9.5 | 1 | 56 | 1 | 5.69 | 3 | 1 |
| Matthew Forde0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 76 | 1 | 8.44 | 3 | 0 |
| Alzarri Joseph1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 31 | 4 | 3.10 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Greaves0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 54 | 0 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Roston Chase0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 44 | 1 | 7.33 | 0 | 0 |
| Gudakesh Motie0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 38 | 0 | 7.60 | 1 | 0 |
1-1 (Jamie Smith, 0.4) · 2-2 (Ben Duckett, 1.3) · 3-87 (Harry Brook, 11.4) · 4-93 (Jos Buttler, 13.4) · 5-133 (Jacob Bethell, 23.4) · 6-276 (Will Jacks, 43.5) · 7-288 (Brydon Carse, 45.3)
Recorded target: 309 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| 2 | 6 | 7/2 |
| 3 | 2 | 9/2 |
| 4 | 7 | 16/2 |
| 5 | 9 | 25/2 |
| 6 | 16 | 41/2 |
| 7 | 0 | 41/2 |
| 8 | 17 | 58/2 |
| 9 | 9 | 67/2 |
| 10 | 11 | 78/2 |
| 11 | 8 | 86/2 |
| 12 | 1 | 87/3 |
| 13 | 5 | 92/3 |
| 14 | 1 | 93/4 |
| 15 | 3 | 96/4 |
| 16 | 4 | 100/4 |
| 17 | 2 | 102/4 |
| 18 | 3 | 105/4 |
| 19 | 4 | 109/4 |
| 20 | 6 | 115/4 |
| 21 | 7 | 122/4 |
| 22 | 4 | 126/4 |
| 23 | 4 | 130/4 |
| 24 | 4 | 134/5 |
| 25 | 4 | 138/5 |
| 26 | 5 | 143/5 |
| 27 | 4 | 147/5 |
| 28 | 6 | 153/5 |
| 29 | 9 | 162/5 |
| 30 | 5 | 167/5 |
| 31 | 2 | 169/5 |
| 32 | 9 | 178/5 |
| 33 | 7 | 185/5 |
| 34 | 4 | 189/5 |
| 35 | 3 | 192/5 |
| 36 | 14 | 206/5 |
| 37 | 6 | 212/5 |
| 38 | 14 | 226/5 |
| 39 | 8 | 234/5 |
| 40 | 11 | 245/5 |
| 41 | 11 | 256/5 |
| 42 | 10 | 266/5 |
| 43 | 9 | 275/5 |
| 44 | 1 | 276/6 |
| 45 | 8 | 284/6 |
| 46 | 4 | 288/7 |
| 47 | 10 | 298/7 |
| 48 | 6 | 304/7 |
| 49 | 8 | 312/7 |
Roston Chase: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Harry Brook: Dave Morton · Public domain
Brydon Carse: Dave Morton · Public domain
Matthew Potts: Dave Morton · Public domain
Ben Duckett: Charltonkyle · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jos Buttler: Ytfc23 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jamie Smith: Dave Morton · Public domain
Joe Root: Dave Morton · Public domain
Shai Hope: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Will Jacks: Dave Morton · Public domain
Adil Rashid: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Saqib Mahmood: Dave Morton · Public domain
Shimron Hetmyer: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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