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West Indies tour of England · 2025 · Men
1 Jun 2025 · ODI
Sophia Gardens, Cardiff · Venue photographRecorded result
England more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
West Indies started on 34%; West Indies batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Kingcaught · Brydon Carse · Adil Rashid 10 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Brydon Carse · b Adil Rashid | 59 | 67 | 10 | 0 | 88.06 |
| J Andrewcaught · Will Jacks · Brydon Carse 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Will Jacks · b Brydon Carse | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Keacy Cartystumped · Jos Buttler · Will Jacks 13 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Jos Buttler · b Will Jacks | 103 | 105 | 13 | 0 | 98.10 |
 Shai Hopecaught · Harry Brook · Saqib Mahmood4 fours · 4 sixes | caught · Harry Brook · b Saqib Mahmood | 78 | 66 | 4 | 4 | 118.18 |
 |
West Indies's chances ranged from 1% to 92% during the match (England: 8% to 99%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| lbw · b Adil Rashid |
| 4 |
| 4 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 100.00 |
| Justin Greavescaught · Ben Duckett · Jacob Bethell 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ben Duckett · b Jacob Bethell | 22 | 22 | 2 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Matthew Fordecaught · Harry Brook · Saqib Mahmood 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Harry Brook · b Saqib Mahmood | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
|---|
 Roston Chasecaught · Jos Buttler · Saqib Mahmood0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jos Buttler · b Saqib Mahmood | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Gudakesh Motiecaught · Joe Root · Adil Rashid 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Joe Root · b Adil Rashid | 18 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 200.00 |
|---|
| Alzarri Josephbowled · Adil Rashid 1 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Adil Rashid | 10 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 333.33 |
|---|
| Jayden Sealesnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 11 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Saqib Mahmood0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.4 | 0 | 37 | 3 | 3.83 | 2 | 0 |
 Brydon Carse1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 1 | 59 | 1 | 6.56 | 1 | 0 |
 Matthew Potts0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 56 | 0 | 6.22 | 0 | 0 |
| Jacob Bethell0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 49 | 1 | 8.17 | 5 | 0 |
 Adil Rashid0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 63 | 4 | 6.30 | 2 | 0 |
 Will Jacks0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 42 | 1 | 10.50 | 1 | 0 |
1-6 (J Andrew, 1.5) · 2-147 (Brandon King, 25.2) · 3-205 (Keacy Carty, 35.3) · 4-212 (Shimron Hetmyer, 37.0) · 5-258 (Justin Greaves, 43.3) · 6-268 (Matthew Forde, 44.2) · 7-268 (Roston Chase, 44.3) · 8-294 (Gudakesh Motie, 46.3) · 9-304 (Alzarri Joseph, 47.0) · 10-308 (Shai Hope, 47.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 6/0 |
| 2 | 0 | 6/1 |
| 3 | 8 | 14/1 |
| 4 | 1 | 15/1 |
| 5 | 2 | 17/1 |
| 6 | 8 | 25/1 |
| 7 | 11 | 36/1 |
| 8 | 17 | 53/1 |
| 9 | 1 | 54/1 |
| 10 | 2 | 56/1 |
| 11 | 3 | 59/1 |
| 12 | 3 | 62/1 |
| 13 | 9 | 71/1 |
| 14 | 1 | 72/1 |
| 15 | 12 | 84/1 |
| 16 | 3 | 87/1 |
| 17 | 7 | 94/1 |
| 18 | 5 | 99/1 |
| 19 | 7 | 106/1 |
| 20 | 9 | 115/1 |
| 21 | 1 | 116/1 |
| 22 | 6 | 122/1 |
| 23 | 8 | 130/1 |
| 24 | 5 | 135/1 |
| 25 | 11 | 146/1 |
| 26 | 4 | 150/2 |
| 27 | 11 | 161/2 |
| 28 | 6 | 167/2 |
| 29 | 1 | 168/2 |
| 30 | 4 | 172/2 |
| 31 | 7 | 179/2 |
| 32 | 3 | 182/2 |
| 33 | 3 | 185/2 |
| 34 | 3 | 188/2 |
| 35 | 10 | 198/2 |
| 36 | 11 | 209/3 |
| 37 | 3 | 212/4 |
| 38 | 4 | 216/4 |
| 39 | 4 | 220/4 |
| 40 | 7 | 227/4 |
| 41 | 4 | 231/4 |
| 42 | 12 | 243/4 |
| 43 | 12 | 255/4 |
| 44 | 13 | 268/5 |
| 45 | 3 | 271/7 |
| 46 | 16 | 287/7 |
| 47 | 17 | 304/9 |
| 48 | 4 | 308/10 |
Roston Chase: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Harry Brook: Dave Morton · Public domain
Brydon Carse: Dave Morton · Public domain
Matthew Potts: Dave Morton · Public domain
Ben Duckett: Charltonkyle · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jos Buttler: Ytfc23 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jamie Smith: Dave Morton · Public domain
Joe Root: Dave Morton · Public domain
Shai Hope: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Will Jacks: Dave Morton · Public domain
Adil Rashid: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Saqib Mahmood: Dave Morton · Public domain
Shimron Hetmyer: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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