Brisbane HeatversusSydney Sixers

5 Jan 2026 · T20

Recorded result

Sydney Sixers won by 3 wickets

Brisbane Heat20.0 overs114/9 Sydney Sixers18.4 overs118/7 International Sports Stadium, Coffs Harbour ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Brisbane Heat started on 44%; Brisbane Heat batted first.

Brisbane Heat’s chance of winning (%) · Sydney Sixers is the rest

Brisbane Heat's chances ranged from 1% to 90% during the match (Sydney Sixers: 10% to 99%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 8.6: MP Kuhnemann to J Edwards, J Edwards out. Brisbane Heat up from 19% to 46%.
2nd inns 9.5: JD Wildermuth to MC Henriques, MC Henriques out. Brisbane Heat up from 37% to 65%.
2nd inns 10.3: MT Renshaw to BAD Manenti, BAD Manenti out. Brisbane Heat up from 58% to 89%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Match details

Toss: Sydney Sixers chose to field
Player of the match: Joel Davies
match referees: Kepler Wessels
reserve umpires: ME Claydon
tv umpires: CA Polosak
umpires: MW Graham-Smith, Sharad Patel

Match history & source

On 5 Jan 2026, Brisbane Heat played Sydney Sixers at International Sports Stadium, Coffs Harbour. Recorded result: Sydney Sixers won by 3 wickets.

Calculation date: 9 Nov 2026.

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