IndiaversusSouth Africa

India more likely to win

Why

• On results in T20 internationals so far, India rate stronger than South Africa (1,842 vs 1,557 on our results rating)
• In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, India won 7 and South Africa won 3
• South Africa are playing at home in South Africa

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

India started on 84%; India batted first.

India's chances ranged from 1% to 88% during the match (South Africa: 12% to 99%).

Biggest swings

1. 2nd inns 12.1: CV Varun to H Klaasen, H Klaasen out. India up from 43% to 68%.
2. 2nd inns 12.2: CV Varun to DA Miller, DA Miller out. India up from 68% to 87%.
3. 2nd inns 17.6: Avesh Khan to T Stubbs, 1 run to T Stubbs. South Africa up from 65% to 85%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.