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Photo: The original uploader was PaddyBriggs at English Wikipedia.
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India tour of South Africa · 2024/25 · Men
10 Nov 2024 · T20
St George's Park, Gqeberha · Venue photographRecorded result
India more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
India started on 84%; India batted first.
India's chances ranged from 1% to 88% during the match (South Africa: 12% to 99%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
On 10 Nov 2024, India played South Africa at St George's Park, Gqeberha. Recorded result: South Africa won by 3 wickets.
Calculation date: 9 Nov 2026.