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Photo: user:jguk
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Vitality Blast Men · 2026 · Men
8 Jul 2026 · T20
The Oval · Venue photographSussex started on 32%; Sussex batted first.
Sussex's chances ranged from 0% to 59% during the match (Surrey: 41% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harrison Wardcaught · Reece Topley · Tom Lawes 2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Reece Topley · b Tom Lawes | 28 | 26 | 2 | 1 | 107.69 |
| Daniel Hughescaught · Ollie Pope · Jordan Clark 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ollie Pope · b Jordan Clark | 9 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 150.00 |
| George Thomascaught · Jason Roy · Tom Lawes 6 fours · 3 sixes | caught · Jason Roy · b Tom Lawes | 57 | 27 | 6 | 3 | 211.11 |
| James Colesnot out 1 fours · 2 sixes | not out | 42* | 29 | 1 | 2 | 144.83 |
 Tom Alsopcaught · Ollie Pope · Chris Jordan1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Ollie Pope · b Chris Jordan | 21 |
| 15 |
| 1 |
| 1 |
| 140.00 |
| Charlie Tearrun out · Tom Lawes, Ollie Pope · Sean Abbott 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Tom Lawes, Ollie Pope | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
|---|
 Tom Pricecaught · Daniel Lawrence · Chris Jordan0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Daniel Lawrence · b Chris Jordan | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
 Jack Carsoncaught · Laurie Evans · Reece Topley1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Laurie Evans · b Reece Topley | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 125.00 |
|---|
| Danny Briggsnot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 8* | 4 | 1 | 0 | 200.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 0 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Reece Topley0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 32 | 1 | 10.67 | 0 | 1 |
 Jordan Clark0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 27 | 1 | 9.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Sean Abbott0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 26 | 0 | 8.67 | 0 | 0 |
 Chris Jordan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 23 | 2 | 5.75 | 0 | 0 |
 Daniel Lawrence0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 37 | 0 | 9.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Tom Lawes0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 29 | 2 | 9.67 | 0 | 0 |
1-10 (Daniel Hughes, 1.5) · 2-85 (Harrison Ward, 8.5) · 3-100 (George Thomas, 10.2) · 4-138 (Tom Alsop, 14.3) · 5-142 (Charlie Tear, 16.0) · 6-145 (Tom Price, 16.5) · 7-159 (Jack Carson, 18.2)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 2 | 8 | 10/1 |
| 3 | 18 | 28/1 |
| 4 | 6 | 34/1 |
| 5 | 16 | 50/1 |
| 6 | 14 | 64/1 |
| 7 | 7 | 71/1 |
| 8 | 5 | 76/1 |
| 9 | 9 | 85/2 |
| 10 | 14 | 99/2 |
| 11 | 8 | 107/3 |
| 12 | 7 | 114/3 |
| 13 | 12 | 126/3 |
| 14 | 11 | 137/3 |
| 15 | 4 | 141/4 |
| 16 | 1 | 142/5 |
| 17 | 3 | 145/6 |
| 18 | 10 | 155/6 |
| 19 | 12 | 167/7 |
| 20 | 9 | 176/7 |
Daniel Lawrence: Kroome111 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tom Alsop: Dave Morton · Public domain
Jack Carson: Dave Morton · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ollie Pope: Kroome111 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Chris Jordan: Number 10 · CC BY 2.0
Reece Topley: Kyle Andrews · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jason Roy: Joeyjackets · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tom Price: Dave Morton · Public domain
Sean Abbott: Naparazzi · CC BY-SA 2.0
Tom Curran: Ytfc23 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jordan Clark: Dave Morton · Public domain
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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