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ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2 · 2025 · Men
12 Jun 2025 · ODI
Forthill, Dundee · Venue photographRecorded result
Scotland more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Scotland started on 68%; Scotland batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Levittcaught · Brandon McMullen · Safyaan Sharif 6 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Brandon McMullen · b Safyaan Sharif | 44 | 40 | 6 | 1 | 110.00 |
| Max O'Dowdnot out 13 fours · 4 sixes | not out | 158* | 130 | 13 | 4 | 121.54 |
 Zach Lion-Cachetcaught · George Munsey · Safyaan Sharif0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · George Munsey · b Safyaan Sharif | 3 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 27.27 |
| Scott Edwardscaught · Michael Leask · Mark Watt 2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Michael Leask · b Mark Watt | 32 | 26 | 2 | 1 | 123.08 |
| Wesley Barresicaught · Finlay McCreath · Mackenzie Jones 1 fours · 0 sixes |
Scotland's chances ranged from 8% to 97% during the match (Netherlands: 3% to 93%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 13 |
| 13 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 100.00 |
| Teja Nidamanurucaught · Finlay McCreath · Charlie Cassell 4 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Finlay McCreath · b Charlie Cassell | 51 | 42 | 4 | 2 | 121.43 |
|---|
| Noah Croescaught · Mark Watt · Safyaan Sharif 7 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Mark Watt · b Safyaan Sharif | 50 | 29 | 7 | 1 | 172.41 |
|---|
 Roelof van der Merwenot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 8* | 6 | 0 | 0 | 133.33 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 4 · wides: 10 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon McMullen1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 70 | 0 | 7.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Mackenzie Jones0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 74 | 1 | 9.25 | 1 | 1 |
| Charlie Cassell0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 73 | 1 | 7.30 | 0 | 0 |
 Mark Watt0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 69 | 1 | 6.90 | 5 | 0 |
| Safyaan Sharif0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.2 | 0 | 62 | 3 | 6.64 | 1 | 0 |
| Michael Leask0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 11.00 | 3 | 0 |
1-67 (Michael Levitt, 9.2) · 2-75 (Zach Lion-Cachet, 11.5) · 3-143 (Scott Edwards, 21.0) · 4-168 (Wesley Barresi, 25.1) · 5-279 (Teja Nidamanuru, 40.1) · 6-355 (Noah Croes, 47.3)
Recorded target: 370 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | 7/0 |
| 2 | 13 | 20/0 |
| 3 | 4 | 24/0 |
| 4 | 12 | 36/0 |
| 5 | 5 | 41/0 |
| 6 | 3 | 44/0 |
| 7 | 0 | 44/0 |
| 8 | 15 | 59/0 |
| 9 | 7 | 66/0 |
| 10 | 1 | 67/1 |
| 11 | 7 | 74/1 |
| 12 | 2 | 76/2 |
| 13 | 11 | 87/2 |
| 14 | 6 | 93/2 |
| 15 | 7 | 100/2 |
| 16 | 3 | 103/2 |
| 17 | 2 | 105/2 |
| 18 | 15 | 120/2 |
| 19 | 7 | 127/2 |
| 20 | 6 | 133/2 |
| 21 | 10 | 143/3 |
| 22 | 6 | 149/3 |
| 23 | 6 | 155/3 |
| 24 | 9 | 164/3 |
| 25 | 4 | 168/3 |
| 26 | 2 | 170/4 |
| 27 | 3 | 173/4 |
| 28 | 5 | 178/4 |
| 29 | 11 | 189/4 |
| 30 | 17 | 206/4 |
| 31 | 3 | 209/4 |
| 32 | 7 | 216/4 |
| 33 | 10 | 226/4 |
| 34 | 6 | 232/4 |
| 35 | 4 | 236/4 |
| 36 | 4 | 240/4 |
| 37 | 13 | 253/4 |
| 38 | 10 | 263/4 |
| 39 | 5 | 268/4 |
| 40 | 11 | 279/4 |
| 41 | 5 | 284/5 |
| 42 | 12 | 296/5 |
| 43 | 8 | 304/5 |
| 44 | 9 | 313/5 |
| 45 | 8 | 321/5 |
| 46 | 17 | 338/5 |
| 47 | 14 | 352/5 |
| 48 | 7 | 359/6 |
| 49 | 8 | 367/6 |
| 50 | 7 | 374/6 |
Mark Watt: Dave Morton · Public domain
Roelof van der Merwe: Ytfc23 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Zach Lion-Cachet: Dave Morton · Public domain
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
