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ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2 · 2025 · Men
12 Jun 2025 · ODI
Forthill, Dundee · Venue photographRecorded result
Scotland more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Scotland started on 68%; Scotland batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Munseybowled · Vivian Kingma 14 fours · 11 sixes | bowled · b Vivian Kingma | 191 | 150 | 14 | 11 | 127.33 |
| Charlie Tearcaught · Noah Croes · Aryan Dutt 1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Noah Croes · b Aryan Dutt | 23 | 21 | 1 | 1 | 109.52 |
| Brandon McMullencaught · Wesley Barresi · Michael Levitt 2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Wesley Barresi · b Michael Levitt | 21 | 28 | 2 | 1 | 75.00 |
| Liam Naylorcaught · Max O'Dowd · Roelof van der Merwe 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Max O'Dowd · b Roelof van der Merwe | 14 | 22 | 1 | 0 | 63.64 |
| Finlay McCreathlbw · Michael Levitt 1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Michael Levitt | 9 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 60.00 |
Scotland's chances ranged from 8% to 97% during the match (Netherlands: 3% to 93%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Max O'Dowd · b Aryan Dutt |
| 59 |
| 49 |
| 7 |
| 0 |
| 120.41 |
| Michael Leasknot out 0 fours · 3 sixes | not out | 28* | 14 | 0 | 3 | 200.00 |
|---|
 Mark Wattnot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 4 · legbyes: 6 · wides: 11 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vivian Kingma0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 71 | 1 | 7.10 | 4 | 0 |
| Paul van Meekeren0 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 66 | 0 | 7.33 | 2 | 1 |
| Aryan Dutt1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 73 | 2 | 7.30 | 1 | 0 |
 Roelof van der Merwe0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 69 | 1 | 8.63 | 2 | 0 |
 Zach Lion-Cachet0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 39 | 0 | 7.80 | 1 | 0 |
| Michael Levitt0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 41 | 2 | 5.13 | 1 | 0 |
1-58 (Charlie Tear, 9.1) · 2-123 (Brandon McMullen, 18.2) · 3-142 (Liam Naylor, 23.5) · 4-162 (Finlay McCreath, 28.4) · 5-312 (Matty Cross, 45.2) · 6-361 (George Munsey, 48.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | 7/0 |
| 2 | 10 | 17/0 |
| 3 | 3 | 20/0 |
| 4 | 14 | 34/0 |
| 5 | 6 | 40/0 |
| 6 | 8 | 48/0 |
| 7 | 5 | 53/0 |
| 8 | 0 | 53/0 |
| 9 | 5 | 58/0 |
| 10 | 8 | 66/1 |
| 11 | 7 | 73/1 |
| 12 | 2 | 75/1 |
| 13 | 2 | 77/1 |
| 14 | 2 | 79/1 |
| 15 | 12 | 91/1 |
| 16 | 8 | 99/1 |
| 17 | 19 | 118/1 |
| 18 | 5 | 123/1 |
| 19 | 5 | 128/2 |
| 20 | 2 | 130/2 |
| 21 | 4 | 134/2 |
| 22 | 2 | 136/2 |
| 23 | 4 | 140/2 |
| 24 | 2 | 142/3 |
| 25 | 4 | 146/3 |
| 26 | 3 | 149/3 |
| 27 | 2 | 151/3 |
| 28 | 9 | 160/3 |
| 29 | 2 | 162/4 |
| 30 | 8 | 170/4 |
| 31 | 12 | 182/4 |
| 32 | 4 | 186/4 |
| 33 | 8 | 194/4 |
| 34 | 5 | 199/4 |
| 35 | 8 | 207/4 |
| 36 | 5 | 212/4 |
| 37 | 12 | 224/4 |
| 38 | 11 | 235/4 |
| 39 | 7 | 242/4 |
| 40 | 11 | 253/4 |
| 41 | 8 | 261/4 |
| 42 | 18 | 279/4 |
| 43 | 7 | 286/4 |
| 44 | 10 | 296/4 |
| 45 | 15 | 311/4 |
| 46 | 11 | 322/5 |
| 47 | 10 | 332/5 |
| 48 | 27 | 359/5 |
| 49 | 4 | 363/6 |
| 50 | 6 | 369/6 |
Mark Watt: Dave Morton · Public domain
Roelof van der Merwe: Ytfc23 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Zach Lion-Cachet: Dave Morton · Public domain
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
