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Photo: user:jguk
Original photograph ↗ · Public domain
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
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Vitality Blast · 2024 · Men
3 Sept 2024 · T20
The Oval · Venue photographDurham started on 34%; Durham batted first.
Durham's chances ranged from 0% to 44% during the match (Surrey: 56% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will Jackscaught · Ashton Turner · Brydon Carse1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ashton Turner · b Brydon Carse | 8 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 80.00 |
 Dominic Sibleybowled · Callum Parkinson6 fours · 2 sixes | bowled · b Callum Parkinson | 67 | 48 | 6 | 2 | 139.58 |
| Laurie Evanscaught · Ashton Turner · Brydon Carse 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ashton Turner · b Brydon Carse | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
 Rory Burnscaught · Brydon Carse · Callum Parkinson2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Brydon Carse · b Callum Parkinson | 10 |
| 10 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 100.00 |
 Sam Curranlbw · Ben Raine2 fours · 4 sixes | lbw · b Ben Raine | 52 | 34 | 2 | 4 | 152.94 |
|---|
 Tom Currannot out1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 6* | 3 | 1 | 0 | 200.00 |
|---|
 Jamie Overtonnot out1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 4* | 3 | 1 | 0 | 133.33 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 9 · noballs: 4 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Brydon Carse0 maidens · 7 wides · 2 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 34 | 2 | 8.50 | 7 | 2 |
 Bas de Leede0 maidens · 1 wides · 2 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 28 | 0 | 9.33 | 1 | 2 |
 Ben Raine0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 26 | 1 | 8.67 | 1 | 0 |
| Callum Parkinson0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 41 | 2 | 10.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Nathan Sowter0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 32 | 0 | 8.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-17 (Will Jacks, 2.2) · 2-24 (Laurie Evans, 3.0) · 3-53 (Rory Burns, 6.2) · 4-148 (Dominic Sibley, 16.4) · 5-160 (Sam Curran, 17.3)
Recorded target: 163 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 8/0 |
| 2 | 5 | 13/0 |
| 3 | 11 | 24/2 |
| 4 | 10 | 34/2 |
| 5 | 3 | 37/2 |
| 6 | 12 | 49/2 |
| 7 | 6 | 55/3 |
| 8 | 5 | 60/3 |
| 9 | 5 | 65/3 |
| 10 | 5 | 70/3 |
| 11 | 7 | 77/3 |
| 12 | 12 | 89/3 |
| 13 | 13 | 102/3 |
| 14 | 12 | 114/3 |
| 15 | 13 | 127/3 |
| 16 | 11 | 138/3 |
| 17 | 17 | 155/4 |
| 18 | 9 | 164/5 |
Bas de Leede: Dave Morton · Public domain
Michael Jones: Dave Morton · Public domain
Colin Ackermann: Dave Morton · Public domain
Alex Lees: Dave Morton · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ben Raine: Dave Morton · Public domain
Brydon Carse: Dave Morton · Public domain
Chris Jordan: Number 10 · CC BY 2.0
Reece Topley: Kyle Andrews · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jamie Overton: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Sam Curran: Number 10 · CC BY 2.0
Ollie Robinson: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
Will Jacks: Dave Morton · Public domain
Graham Clark: Dave Morton · Public domain
Dominic Sibley: Dave Morton · Public domain
Rory Burns: Dave Morton · Public domain
Tom Curran: Ytfc23 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jordan Clark: Dave Morton · Public domain
Ashton Turner: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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