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Photo: user:jguk
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Vitality Blast · 2024 · Men
3 Sept 2024 · T20
The Oval · Venue photographDurham started on 34%; Durham batted first.
Durham's chances ranged from 0% to 44% during the match (Surrey: 56% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Graham Clarkcaught · Chris Jordan · Daniel Worrall0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Chris Jordan · b Daniel Worrall | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
 Alex Leesbowled · Daniel Worrall2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Daniel Worrall | 12 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 92.31 |
 Ollie Robinsonbowled · Reece Topley0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Reece Topley | 1 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 9.09 |
 Colin Ackermannrun out · Sam Curran · Chris Jordan1 fours · 0 sixes |
| run out · Sam Curran |
| 13 |
| 17 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 76.47 |
 Brydon Carsecaught · Rory Burns · Tom Curran0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Rory Burns · b Tom Curran | 8 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 133.33 |
|---|
 Ashton Turnercaught · Dominic Sibley · Reece Topley1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Dominic Sibley · b Reece Topley | 26 | 21 | 1 | 1 | 123.81 |
|---|
 Bas de Leedebowled · Sam Curran2 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Sam Curran | 24 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 160.00 |
|---|
 Michael Jonesnot out5 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 37* | 24 | 5 | 1 | 154.17 |
|---|
 Ben Rainerun out · Jamie Overton · Chris Jordan2 fours · 2 sixes | run out · Jamie Overton | 23 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 287.50 |
|---|
| Nathan Sowternot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 5* | 2 | 1 | 0 | 250.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 6 · wides: 4 · noballs: 2 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Worrall0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 14 | 2 | 3.50 | 2 | 0 |
 Reece Topley0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 20 | 2 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Tom Curran0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 40 | 1 | 10.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Sam Curran0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 24 | 1 | 6.00 | 1 | 0 |
 Chris Jordan0 maidens · 1 wides · 2 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 57 | 0 | 14.25 | 1 | 2 |
1-1 (Graham Clark, 0.4) · 2-12 (Ollie Robinson, 3.4) · 3-21 (Alex Lees, 5.0) · 4-36 (Brydon Carse, 7.2) · 5-61 (Colin Ackermann, 11.0) · 6-69 (Ashton Turner, 12.2) · 7-121 (Bas de Leede, 17.5) · 8-154 (Ben Raine, 19.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| 2 | 5 | 6/1 |
| 3 | 6 | 12/1 |
| 4 | 2 | 14/2 |
| 5 | 7 | 21/3 |
| 6 | 11 | 32/3 |
| 7 | 4 | 36/3 |
| 8 | 3 | 39/4 |
| 9 | 3 | 42/4 |
| 10 | 10 | 52/4 |
| 11 | 9 | 61/5 |
| 12 | 6 | 67/5 |
| 13 | 3 | 70/6 |
| 14 | 12 | 82/6 |
| 15 | 14 | 96/6 |
| 16 | 6 | 102/6 |
| 17 | 12 | 114/6 |
| 18 | 9 | 123/7 |
| 19 | 14 | 137/7 |
| 20 | 25 | 162/8 |
Bas de Leede: Dave Morton · Public domain
Michael Jones: Dave Morton · Public domain
Colin Ackermann: Dave Morton · Public domain
Alex Lees: Dave Morton · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ben Raine: Dave Morton · Public domain
Brydon Carse: Dave Morton · Public domain
Chris Jordan: Number 10 · CC BY 2.0
Reece Topley: Kyle Andrews · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jamie Overton: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Sam Curran: Number 10 · CC BY 2.0
Ollie Robinson: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
Will Jacks: Dave Morton · Public domain
Graham Clark: Dave Morton · Public domain
Dominic Sibley: Dave Morton · Public domain
Rory Burns: Dave Morton · Public domain
Tom Curran: Ytfc23 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jordan Clark: Dave Morton · Public domain
Ashton Turner: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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