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Pakistan tour of Zimbabwe · 2024/25 · Men
5 Dec 2024 · T20
Recorded result
Pakistan more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Pakistan started on 57%; Pakistan batted first.
Pakistan's chances ranged from 7% to 78% during the match (Zimbabwe: 22% to 93%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Bennettcaught · Tayyab Tahir · Sufyan Moqeem 6 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Tayyab Tahir · b Sufyan Moqeem | 43 | 35 | 6 | 1 | 122.86 |
| Tadiwanashe Marumanicaught · Sahibzada Farhan · Salman Ali Agha 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sahibzada Farhan · b Salman Ali Agha | 15 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 250.00 |
| Dion Myerscaught · Arafat Minhas · Abbas Afridi 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Arafat Minhas · b Abbas Afridi | 13 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 72.22 |
 Sikandar Razacaught · Omair Yousuf · Jahandad Khan1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Omair Yousuf · b Jahandad Khan | 19 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 95.00 |
| Wesley Madheverebowled · Abbas Afridi1 fours · 0 sixes |
| bowled · b Abbas Afridi |
| 7 |
| 7 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 100.00 |
| Ryan Burlrun out · Sahibzada Farhan, Usman Khan · Salman Ali Agha 1 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Sahibzada Farhan, Usman Khan | 6 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 85.71 |
|---|
| Tashinga Musekiwacaught · Tayyab Tahir · Jahandad Khan 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tayyab Tahir · b Jahandad Khan | 7 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 41.18 |
|---|
| Wellington Masakadzalbw · Abbas Afridi 1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Abbas Afridi | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 150.00 |
|---|
| Tinotenda Maposanot out 1 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 12* | 4 | 1 | 1 | 300.00 |
|---|
| Richard Ngaravanot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 4 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mohammad Hasnain0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 24 | 0 | 12.00 | 2 | 0 |
| Jahandad Khan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.5 | 0 | 30 | 2 | 10.59 | 0 | 0 |
| Salman Ali Agha0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 19 | 1 | 6.33 | 0 | 0 |
| Arafat Minhas0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 4.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Sufyan Moqeem1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 19 | 1 | 4.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Abbas Afridi0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 24 | 3 | 6.00 | 2 | 0 |
1-40 (Tadiwanashe Marumani, 3.2) · 2-73 (Brian Bennett, 9.4) · 3-75 (Dion Myers, 10.1) · 4-85 (Wesley Madhevere, 12.2) · 5-94 (Ryan Burl, 14.0) · 6-112 (Sikandar Raza, 18.0) · 7-120 (Wellington Masakadza, 18.5) · 8-132 (Tashinga Musekiwa, 19.4)
Recorded target: 133 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/0 |
| 2 | 12 | 17/0 |
| 3 | 19 | 36/0 |
| 4 | 6 | 42/1 |
| 5 | 8 | 50/1 |
| 6 | 6 | 56/1 |
| 7 | 4 | 60/1 |
| 8 | 7 | 67/1 |
| 9 | 3 | 70/1 |
| 10 | 5 | 75/2 |
| 11 | 2 | 77/3 |
| 12 | 7 | 84/3 |
| 13 | 3 | 87/4 |
| 14 | 7 | 94/5 |
| 15 | 2 | 96/5 |
| 16 | 0 | 96/5 |
| 17 | 10 | 106/5 |
| 18 | 6 | 112/6 |
| 19 | 9 | 121/7 |
| 20 | 12 | 133/8 |
Usman Khan: Pakistan Cricket · CC BY 3.0
Sikandar Raza: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
