Melbourne RenegadesversusHobart Hurricanes

21 Dec 2025 · T20

Kardinia Park, South Geelong, Victoria · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Hobart Hurricanes won by 7 wickets

Melbourne Renegades20.0 overs145/9 Hobart Hurricanes13.5 overs149/3 Kardinia Park, South Geelong, Victoria ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Melbourne Renegades started on 40%; Melbourne Renegades batted first.

Melbourne Renegades’s chance of winning (%) · Hobart Hurricanes is the rest

Melbourne Renegades's chances ranged from 0% to 51% during the match (Hobart Hurricanes: 49% to 100%).

Biggest swings

1.4: RP Meredith to J Brown, J Brown out. Hobart Hurricanes up from 66% to 75%.
2nd inns 0.1: JP Behrendorff to MJ Owen, MJ Owen out. Melbourne Renegades up from 23% to 35%.
2nd inns 3.3: JP Behrendorff to TP Ward, TP Ward out. Melbourne Renegades up from 13% to 21%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.