ThailandversusBhutan

26 Feb 2026 · T20

Recorded result

Thailand won by 60 runs

Thailand20.0 overs140/6 Bhutan17.1 overs80/10 Terdthai Cricket Ground, Bangkok ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Too close to call

51%Thailand49%Bhutan

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Bhutan rate stronger than Thailand (1,391 vs 1,326 on our results rating)
Thailand are playing at home in Thailand
In the last 6 T20 internationals between these sides, Thailand won 4 and Bhutan won 2

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Thailand started on 47%; Thailand batted first.

Thailand’s chance of winning (%) · Bhutan is the rest

Thailand's chances ranged from 27% to 100% during the match (Bhutan: 0% to 73%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 0.3: K Senamontree to Namgay Thinley, Namgay Thinley out. Thailand up from 46% to 58%.
2nd inns 1.3: MK Thakur to Tenjin Rabgey, Tenjin Rabgey out. Thailand up from 58% to 69%.
2nd inns 2.1: K Senamontree to RM Dorji, RM Dorji out. Thailand up from 66% to 84%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Thailand140/6 Bhutan80/10

Innings 1

Thailand

140/620.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Thailand batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
S Desungnoenstumped · Tshering Tashi · Sonam Yeshey 1 fours · 0 sixes	stumped · Tshering Tashi · b Sonam Yeshey	5	6	1	0	83.33
Akshaykumar Yadavcaught · Tashi Phuntsho · Namgay Thinley 4 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Tashi Phuntsho · b Namgay Thinley	33	38	4	0	86.84
Y Saranonnakkunbowled · Tashi Phuntsho 1 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Tashi Phuntsho	5	5	1	0	100.00
Austin Lazaruscaught · Gakul Ghalley · Ranjung Mikyo Dorji 8 fours · 2 sixes	caught · Gakul Ghalley · b Ranjung Mikyo Dorji	64	53	8	2	120.75
Chaloemwong Chatphaisancaught · Gakul Ghalley · Ranjung Mikyo Dorji 0 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Gakul Ghalley · b Ranjung Mikyo Dorji	10	12

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Tashi Phuntsho0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	19	1	4.75	0	0
Sonam Yeshey0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	13	1	3.25	0	0
Namgay Thinley0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	20	1	5.00	0	0
Tashi Dorji0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls	2.0	28	0	14.00	0	1
Ranjung Mikyo Dorji0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	32	2	10.67	1	0
U Dorji0 maidens · 8 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	23	0	11.50	8	0
Thinley Jamtsho0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	5	1	5.00	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	5	5/0
2	6	11/1
3	3	14/2
4	1	15/2
5	1	16/2
6	5	21/2
7	10	31/2
8	1	32/2
9	5	37/2
10	13	50/2
11	2	52/2
12	6	58/2
13	2	60/3
14	3	63/3
15	11	74/3
16	20	94/3
17	15	109/3
18	12	121/4
19	5	126/5
20	14	140/6

Bringing the game to you…

Help make cricket’s story more accurate.