EssexversusMiddlesex

7 Jun 2026 · T20

Recorded result

Essex won by 60 runs

Essex20.0 overs176/5 Middlesex17.5 overs116/10 Merchant Taylors' School Ground, Northwood ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Essex started on 56%; Essex batted first.

Essex’s chance of winning (%) · Middlesex is the rest

Essex's chances ranged from 37% to 100% during the match (Middlesex: 0% to 64%).

Biggest swings

2.6: E Bosch to MS Pepper, MS Pepper out. Middlesex up from 42% to 56%.
2nd inns 0.5: S Snater to AM Rossington, AM Rossington out. Essex up from 57% to 69%.
2nd inns 5.1: Zaman Akhter to JM De Caires, JM De Caires out. Essex up from 61% to 73%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Match details

Toss: Middlesex chose to field
match referees: PM Such
umpires: JC Tredwell, Surendiran Shanmugam

Match history & source

On 7 Jun 2026, Essex played Middlesex at Merchant Taylors' School Ground, Northwood. Recorded result: Essex won by 60 runs.

Calculation date: 9 Nov 2026.

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