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ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2 · 2025/26 · Men
3 Nov 2025 · ODI
Dubai International Cricket Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
United States of America more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
United States of America started on 68%; United States of America batted first.
United States of America's chances ranged from 40% to 100% during the match (United Arab Emirates: 0% to 60%).
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Alishan Sharafucaught · Smit Patel · Saurabh Netravalkar0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Smit Patel · b Saurabh Netravalkar | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Aryansh Sharmacaught · Smit Patel · R Ugarkar 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Smit Patel · b R Ugarkar | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
| Muhammad Shahdadcaught · Smit Patel · Saurabh Netravalkar 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Smit Patel · b Saurabh Netravalkar | 1 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 5.56 |
| Sohaib Khancaught · Smit Patel · R Ugarkar 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Smit Patel · b R Ugarkar | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Waseem Muhammadlbw · R Ugarkar1 fours · 0 sixes |
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| lbw · b R Ugarkar |
| 8 |
| 12 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 66.67 |
| H Kaushiklbw · Saurabh Netravalkar 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Saurabh Netravalkar | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| D Parasharstumped · Smit Patel · Shubham Ranjane 0 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Smit Patel · b Shubham Ranjane | 5 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 18.52 |
|---|
| Zahid Alicaught · Smit Patel · R Ugarkar 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Smit Patel · b R Ugarkar | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Haider Alilbw · Milind Kumar 1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Milind Kumar | 6 | 36 | 1 | 0 | 16.67 |
|---|
| Junaid Siddiquebowled · R Ugarkar 0 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b R Ugarkar | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 111.11 |
|---|
| Muhammad Rohidnot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 6* | 12 | 1 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 4 · wides: 6 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saurabh Netravalkar4 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 0.50 | 0 | 0 |
| R Ugarkar1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.1 | 1 | 22 | 5 | 2.69 | 1 | 0 |
| Jasdeep Singh2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Shubham Ranjane0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 14 | 1 | 7.00 | 5 | 0 |
| Milind Kumar1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2.50 | 0 | 0 |
1-0 (Alishan Sharafu, 0.4) · 2-2 (Aryansh Sharma, 3.1) · 3-2 (Sohaib Khan, 3.3) · 4-10 (Muhammad Shahdad, 6.1) · 5-12 (H Kaushik, 6.5) · 6-14 (Waseem Muhammad, 8.0) · 7-16 (Zahid Ali, 9.3) · 8-28 (D Parashar, 16.3) · 9-41 (Haider Ali, 19.3) · 10-49 (Junaid Siddique, 22.1)
Recorded target: 293 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0/1 |
| 2 | 1 | 1/1 |
| 3 | 1 | 2/1 |
| 4 | 0 | 2/3 |
| 5 | 0 | 2/3 |
| 6 | 8 | 10/3 |
| 7 | 2 | 12/5 |
| 8 | 2 | 14/6 |
| 9 | 1 | 15/6 |
| 10 | 6 | 21/7 |
| 11 | 1 | 22/7 |
| 12 | 2 | 24/7 |
| 13 | 0 | 24/7 |
| 14 | 2 | 26/7 |
| 15 | 0 | 26/7 |
| 16 | 0 | 26/7 |
| 17 | 9 | 35/8 |
| 18 | 0 | 35/8 |
| 19 | 6 | 41/8 |
| 20 | 0 | 41/9 |
| 21 | 3 | 44/9 |
| 22 | 5 | 49/9 |
| 23 | 0 | 49/10 |
Shubham Ranjane: Dee03 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alishan Sharafu: Sharafu.abuali · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
