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ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2 · 2025/26 · Men
3 Nov 2025 · ODI
Dubai International Cricket Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
United States of America more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
United States of America started on 68%; United States of America batted first.
United States of America's chances ranged from 40% to 100% during the match (United Arab Emirates: 0% to 60%).
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smit Patelcaught · Haider Ali · Muhammad Rohid 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Haider Ali · b Muhammad Rohid | 5 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 62.50 |
| Shayan Jahangircaught · Waseem Muhammad · Junaid Siddique 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Waseem Muhammad · b Junaid Siddique | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
| Monank Patelcaught · Alishan Sharafu · Junaid Siddique 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Alishan Sharafu · b Junaid Siddique | 15 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 100.00 |
| Saiteja Mukkamallanot out 10 fours · 3 sixes | not out | 137* | 149 | 10 | 3 | 91.95 |
| Milind Kumarnot out 11 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 123* | 125 | 11 | 1 | 98.40 |
| Extras |
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| byes: 1 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 7 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 |
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Junaid Siddique0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 60 | 2 | 6.00 | 4 | 0 |
| Muhammad Rohid1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 69 | 1 | 6.90 | 0 | 0 |
| Haider Ali1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 40 | 0 | 4.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Zahid Ali0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 42 | 0 | 7.00 | 1 | 0 |
| H Kaushik0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 43 | 0 | 5.38 | 1 | 0 |
| D Parashar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 29 | 0 | 5.80 | 0 | 0 |
| Muhammad Shahdad0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-7 (Smit Patel, 1.4) · 2-7 (Shayan Jahangir, 2.1) · 3-28 (Monank Patel, 7.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 2 | 5 | 7/1 |
| 3 | 1 | 8/2 |
| 4 | 0 | 8/2 |
| 5 | 5 | 13/2 |
| 6 | 7 | 20/2 |
| 7 | 8 | 28/3 |
| 8 | 8 | 36/3 |
| 9 | 5 | 41/3 |
| 10 | 6 | 47/3 |
| 11 | 5 | 52/3 |
| 12 | 0 | 52/3 |
| 13 | 11 | 63/3 |
| 14 | 6 | 69/3 |
| 15 | 6 | 75/3 |
| 16 | 1 | 76/3 |
| 17 | 5 | 81/3 |
| 18 | 1 | 82/3 |
| 19 | 4 | 86/3 |
| 20 | 4 | 90/3 |
| 21 | 3 | 93/3 |
| 22 | 6 | 99/3 |
| 23 | 8 | 107/3 |
| 24 | 5 | 112/3 |
| 25 | 6 | 118/3 |
| 26 | 3 | 121/3 |
| 27 | 7 | 128/3 |
| 28 | 3 | 131/3 |
| 29 | 5 | 136/3 |
| 30 | 9 | 145/3 |
| 31 | 6 | 151/3 |
| 32 | 2 | 153/3 |
| 33 | 3 | 156/3 |
| 34 | 6 | 162/3 |
| 35 | 3 | 165/3 |
| 36 | 5 | 170/3 |
| 37 | 7 | 177/3 |
| 38 | 8 | 185/3 |
| 39 | 7 | 192/3 |
| 40 | 6 | 198/3 |
| 41 | 7 | 205/3 |
| 42 | 9 | 214/3 |
| 43 | 5 | 219/3 |
| 44 | 11 | 230/3 |
| 45 | 8 | 238/3 |
| 46 | 14 | 252/3 |
| 47 | 9 | 261/3 |
| 48 | 9 | 270/3 |
| 49 | 6 | 276/3 |
| 50 | 16 | 292/3 |
Shubham Ranjane: Dee03 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alishan Sharafu: Sharafu.abuali · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
