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Australia tour of South Africa · 2026/27 · Men
30 Sept 2026 · ODI
Recorded result
South Africa more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
3 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Xavier Bartlett | 15 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 93.75 |
0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mitchell Starc · b Xavier Bartlett | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
5 fours · 2 sixes | not out | 71* | 81 | 5 | 2 | 87.65 |
| Matthew Breetzkestumped · Alex Carey · Adam Zampa 3 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Alex Carey · b Adam Zampa | 25 | 29 | 3 |
| 0 |
| 86.21 |
| Tristan Stubbslbw · Adam Zampa 1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Adam Zampa | 14 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 82.35 |
|---|
| Corbin Boschnot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 13* | 20 | 1 | 0 | 65.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 4 · wides: 3 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.0 | 0 | 33 | 0 | 5.50 | 1 | 0 | |
| Xavier Bartlett0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 25 | 2 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
| 5.0 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 3.40 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cooper Connolly0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 4.33 | 0 | 0 |
| 1.0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 8.00 | 0 | 0 | |
| 6.0 | 0 | 34 | 2 | 5.67 | 2 | 0 | |
| 2.0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 5.50 | 0 | 0 |
1-4 (Quinton de Kock, 1.5) · 2-30 (Aiden Markram, 5.5) · 3-102 (Matthew Breetzke, 18.0) · 4-125 (Tristan Stubbs, 22.0)
Recorded target: 191 runs in 28 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/0 |
| 2 | 4 | 8/1 |
| 3 | 7 | 15/1 |
| 4 | 2 | 17/1 |
| 5 | 9 | 26/1 |
| 6 | 8 | 34/2 |
| 7 | 1 | 35/2 |
| 8 | 6 | 41/2 |
| 9 | 8 | 49/2 |
| 10 | 5 | 54/2 |
| 11 | 9 | 63/2 |
| 12 | 4 | 67/2 |
| 13 | 8 | 75/2 |
| 14 | 9 | 84/2 |
| 15 | 5 | 89/2 |
| 16 | 4 | 93/2 |
| 17 | 6 | 99/2 |
| 18 | 3 | 102/3 |
| 19 | 8 | 110/3 |
| 20 | 3 | 113/3 |
| 21 | 4 | 117/3 |
| 22 | 8 | 125/4 |
| 23 | 2 | 127/4 |
| 24 | 7 | 134/4 |
| 25 | 1 | 135/4 |
| 26 | 4 | 139/4 |
| 27 | 1 | 140/4 |
| 28 | 5 | 145/4 |
Mitchell Marsh: www.davidmolloyphotography.com · CC BY 2.0
Ryan Rickelton: Dave Morton · Public domain
Adam Zampa: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Aiden Markram: Marcel Sigg · CC0
Travis Head: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Pat Cummins: SirWellsy99 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alex Carey: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Oliver Peake: DustyNail · CC BY-SA 4.0
Quinton de Kock: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Mitchell Starc: Dave Morton · Public domain
Cameron Green: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Matt Renshaw: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.