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Australia tour of South Africa · 2026/27 · Men
30 Sept 2026 · ODI
Recorded result
South Africa more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mitchell Marshlbw · Bjorn Fortuin8 fours · 2 sixes | lbw · b Bjorn Fortuin | 56 | 42 | 8 | 2 | 133.33 |
 Travis Headbowled · Corbin Bosch5 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Corbin Bosch | 24 | 20 | 5 | 0 | 120.00 |
| Cooper Connollybowled · Gerald Coetzee 2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Gerald Coetzee | 23 | 33 | 2 | 0 | 69.70 |
 Oliver Peakecaught · Bjorn Fortuin · Corbin Bosch4 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Bjorn Fortuin · b Corbin Bosch | 48 | 53 | 4 | 1 |
| 90.57 |
 Alex Careycaught · Lizaad Williams · Corbin Bosch4 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Lizaad Williams · b Corbin Bosch | 74 | 88 | 4 | 2 | 84.09 |
|---|
 Matt Renshawcaught · Aiden Markram · Gerald Coetzee2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Aiden Markram · b Gerald Coetzee | 30 | 29 | 2 | 1 | 103.45 |
|---|
 Cameron Greencaught · Quinton de Kock · Corbin Bosch1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Quinton de Kock · b Corbin Bosch | 23 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 127.78 |
|---|
| Xavier Bartlettbowled · Lizaad Williams 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Lizaad Williams | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
 Pat Cumminscaught · Matthew Breetzke · Lizaad Williams2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Matthew Breetzke · b Lizaad Williams | 11 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 183.33 |
|---|
 Mitchell Starcnot out1 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 11* | 7 | 1 | 1 | 157.14 |
|---|
 Adam Zampanot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 8 · wides: 9 · noballs: 2 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gerald Coetzee1 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 1 | 61 | 2 | 6.78 | 3 | 0 |
| Lizaad Williams0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 48 | 2 | 8.00 | 1 | 1 |
| Corbin Bosch1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 1 | 60 | 4 | 6.67 | 1 | 0 |
| Bjorn Fortuin0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 50 | 1 | 5.56 | 0 | 0 |
| N Mokoena0 maidens · 3 wides · 1 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 42 | 0 | 6.00 | 3 | 1 |
 Aiden Markram0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 42 | 0 | 5.25 | 1 | 0 |
| Tristan Stubbs0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-78 (Travis Head, 8.4) · 2-94 (Mitchell Marsh, 13.1) · 3-118 (Cooper Connolly, 17.1) · 4-191 (Oliver Peake, 31.1) · 5-257 (Matt Renshaw, 41.3) · 6-285 (Alex Carey, 45.5) · 7-288 (Xavier Bartlett, 46.4) · 8-298 (Cameron Green, 47.4) · 9-314 (Pat Cummins, 48.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0/0 |
| 2 | 10 | 10/0 |
| 3 | 18 | 28/0 |
| 4 | 1 | 29/0 |
| 5 | 13 | 42/0 |
| 6 | 10 | 52/0 |
| 7 | 5 | 57/0 |
| 8 | 13 | 70/0 |
| 9 | 9 | 79/1 |
| 10 | 3 | 82/1 |
| 11 | 7 | 89/1 |
| 12 | 2 | 91/1 |
| 13 | 3 | 94/1 |
| 14 | 8 | 102/2 |
| 15 | 5 | 107/2 |
| 16 | 6 | 113/2 |
| 17 | 5 | 118/2 |
| 18 | 3 | 121/3 |
| 19 | 9 | 130/3 |
| 20 | 1 | 131/3 |
| 21 | 3 | 134/3 |
| 22 | 7 | 141/3 |
| 23 | 2 | 143/3 |
| 24 | 10 | 153/3 |
| 25 | 2 | 155/3 |
| 26 | 3 | 158/3 |
| 27 | 7 | 165/3 |
| 28 | 7 | 172/3 |
| 29 | 9 | 181/3 |
| 30 | 8 | 189/3 |
| 31 | 2 | 191/3 |
| 32 | 1 | 192/4 |
| 33 | 2 | 194/4 |
| 34 | 5 | 199/4 |
| 35 | 12 | 211/4 |
| 36 | 3 | 214/4 |
| 37 | 6 | 220/4 |
| 38 | 7 | 227/4 |
| 39 | 7 | 234/4 |
| 40 | 15 | 249/4 |
| 41 | 6 | 255/4 |
| 42 | 3 | 258/5 |
| 43 | 8 | 266/5 |
| 44 | 7 | 273/5 |
| 45 | 7 | 280/5 |
| 46 | 6 | 286/6 |
| 47 | 4 | 290/7 |
| 48 | 13 | 303/8 |
| 49 | 11 | 314/9 |
| 50 | 8 | 322/9 |
Mitchell Marsh: www.davidmolloyphotography.com · CC BY 2.0
Ryan Rickelton: Dave Morton · Public domain
Adam Zampa: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Aiden Markram: Marcel Sigg · CC0
Travis Head: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Pat Cummins: SirWellsy99 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alex Carey: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Oliver Peake: DustyNail · CC BY-SA 4.0
Quinton de Kock: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Mitchell Starc: Dave Morton · Public domain
Cameron Green: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Matt Renshaw: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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