West IndiesversusSri Lanka

18 Jun 2024 · ODI

Recorded result

Sri Lanka won by 5 wickets

West Indies31.0 overs92/10 Sri Lanka21.2 overs93/5 Mahinda Rajapaksa International Cricket Stadium, Sooriyawewa, Hambantota ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Too close to call

52%West Indies48%Sri Lanka

Why

On results in ODIs so far, West Indies rate stronger than Sri Lanka (1,472 vs 1,385 on our results rating)
Sri Lanka are playing at home in Sri Lanka
In the last 5 ODIs between these sides, West Indies won 3 and Sri Lanka won 2

Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

West Indies started on 49%; West Indies batted first.

West Indies’s chance of winning (%) · Sri Lanka is the rest

West Indies's chances ranged from 0% to 50% during the match (Sri Lanka: 50% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2.4: WGAKK Kulasuriya to RS Williams, S Gajnabi out. Sri Lanka up from 50% to 64%.
8.2: WGAKK Kulasuriya to SA Campbelle, SA Campbelle out. Sri Lanka up from 59% to 69%.
12.2: WGAKK Kulasuriya to SR Taylor, SR Taylor out. Sri Lanka up from 68% to 80%.

Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

West Indies92/10 Sri Lanka93/5

Innings 2

Sri Lanka

93/521.2 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Sri Lanka batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Vishmi Gunaratnecaught · Chinelle Henry · Zaida James 9 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Chinelle Henry · b Zaida James	50	50	9	1	100.00
Chamari Atapattubowled · Aaliyah Alleyne 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Aaliyah Alleyne	1	7	0	0	14.29
Harshitha Madavicaught · Chedean Nation · Shamilia Connell 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Chedean Nation · b Shamilia Connell	0	9	0	0	0.00
Kavisha Dilharicaught · Chinelle Henry · Karishma Ramharack 4 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Chinelle Henry

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Shamilia Connell1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	13	1	3.25	1
Chinelle Henry0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	9	0	4.50	1
Aaliyah Alleyne0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	15	1	3.75	2
Afy Fletcher0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	15	0	7.50	0
Karishma Ramharack0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	5.2	0	29	2	5.44	1
Zaida James0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	12	1	3.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	8	8/0
2	2	10/0
3	1	11/1
4	7	18/1
5	2	20/1
6	2	22/2
7	4	26/2
8	0	26/2
9	8	34/2
10	3	37/2
11	10	47/2
12	6	53/2
13	5	58/2
14	6	64/2
15	8	72/2
16	7	79/2
17	1	80/3
18	7	87/4
19	1	88/4
20	2	90/5
21	2	92/5
22	1	93/5

Bringing the game to you…

Help make cricket’s story more accurate.