West IndiesversusSri Lanka

18 Jun 2024 · ODI

Recorded result

Sri Lanka won by 5 wickets

West Indies31.0 overs92/10 Sri Lanka21.2 overs93/5 Mahinda Rajapaksa International Cricket Stadium, Sooriyawewa, Hambantota ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Too close to call

52%West Indies48%Sri Lanka

Why

On results in ODIs so far, West Indies rate stronger than Sri Lanka (1,472 vs 1,385 on our results rating)
Sri Lanka are playing at home in Sri Lanka
In the last 5 ODIs between these sides, West Indies won 3 and Sri Lanka won 2

Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

West Indies started on 49%; West Indies batted first.

West Indies’s chance of winning (%) · Sri Lanka is the rest

West Indies's chances ranged from 0% to 50% during the match (Sri Lanka: 50% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2.4: WGAKK Kulasuriya to RS Williams, S Gajnabi out. Sri Lanka up from 50% to 64%.
8.2: WGAKK Kulasuriya to SA Campbelle, SA Campbelle out. Sri Lanka up from 59% to 69%.
12.2: WGAKK Kulasuriya to SR Taylor, SR Taylor out. Sri Lanka up from 68% to 80%.

Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

West Indies92/10 Sri Lanka93/5

Innings 1

West Indies

92/1031.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

West Indies batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Rashada Williamsbowled · Sugandika Kumari 4 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Sugandika Kumari	24	62	4	0	38.71
Shabika Gajnabirun out · Kavisha Dilhari · Achini Kulasuriya 0 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Kavisha Dilhari	0	5	0	0	0.00
Shemaine Campbellebowled · Achini Kulasuriya 1 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Achini Kulasuriya	9	18	1	0	50.00
Stafanie Taylorlbw · Achini Kulasuriya 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Achini Kulasuriya	1	9	0	0	11.11

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls
Achini Kulasuriya1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	7.0	1	16	2	2.29
Udeshika Prabodhani0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	5.0	0	5	0	1.00
Sugandika Kumari0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	6.0	0	16	1	2.67
Sachini Nisansala0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	5.0	0	27	0	5.40
Kavisha Dilhari0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	6.0	0	20	4	3.33
Chamari Atapattu0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	8	2	4.00

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	1	1/0
2	1	2/0
3	1	3/1
4	1	4/1
5	2	6/1
6	1	7/1
7	4	11/1
8	1	12/1
9	4	16/2
10	1	17/2
11	0	17/2
12	5	22/2
13	4	26/3
14	1	27/3
15	6	33/3
16	1	34/3
17	5	39/3
18	3	42/3
19	4	46/3
20	1	47/4
21	1	48/4
22	5	53/4
23	1	54/6
24	2	56/6
25	7	63/6
26	10	73/6
27	9	82/6
28	6	88/7
29	1	89/7
30	2	91/8
31	1	92/10

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