**Fitzherbert Park, Palmerston North**
Photo: Mike Dickison
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.

Super Smash · 2025/26 · Men

Central DistrictsversusWellington

27 Dec 2025 · T20

Fitzherbert Park, Palmerston North · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Central Districts won by 46 runs

Central Districts20.0 overs188/7 Wellington17.5 overs142/10 Fitzherbert Park, Palmerston North ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Central Districts started on 54%; Central Districts batted first.

Central Districts’s chance of winning (%) · Wellington is the rest

Central Districts's chances ranged from 40% to 100% during the match (Wellington: 0% to 60%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 8.5: AY Patel to MA Abbas, MA Abbas out. Central Districts up from 40% to 55%.
2nd inns 11.4: AR Schaw to TA Blundell, TA Blundell out. Central Districts up from 42% to 58%.
2nd inns 12.4: AY Patel to JM Tashkoff, JM Tashkoff out. Central Districts up from 58% to 78%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Central Districts188/7 Wellington142/10

Innings 1