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Photo: ROxBo at English Wikipedia
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England tour of West Indies · 2024/25 · Men
6 Nov 2024 · ODI
Kensington Oval · Venue photographRecorded result
England more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
England started on 51%; England batted first.
On 6 Nov 2024, England played West Indies at Kensington Oval. Recorded result: West Indies won by 8 wickets.
Calculation date: 9 Nov 2026.
England's chances ranged from 0% to 74% during the match (West Indies: 26% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.