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England tour of West Indies · 2024/25 · Men
6 Nov 2024 · ODI
Kensington Oval · Venue photographRecorded result
England more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
England started on 51%; England batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Philip Saltcaught · Alzarri Joseph · Matthew Forde4 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Alzarri Joseph · b Matthew Forde | 74 | 108 | 4 | 1 | 68.52 |
 Will Jackscaught · Shai Hope · Matthew Forde1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shai Hope · b Matthew Forde | 5 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 50.00 |
| Jordan Coxcaught · Shai Hope · Alzarri Joseph 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shai Hope · b Alzarri Joseph | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 16.67 |
| Jacob Bethellcaught · Roston Chase · Romario Shepherd 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Roston Chase · b Romario Shepherd | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
England's chances ranged from 0% to 74% during the match (West Indies: 26% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Shai Hope · b Romario Shepherd |
| 6 |
| 14 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 42.86 |
 Sam Currancaught · HR Walsh · Roston Chase4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · HR Walsh · b Roston Chase | 40 | 52 | 4 | 0 | 76.92 |
|---|
| Dan Mousleycaught · Evin Lewis · Alzarri Joseph 5 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Evin Lewis · b Alzarri Joseph | 57 | 70 | 5 | 1 | 81.43 |
|---|
 Jamie Overtoncaught · Evin Lewis · Matthew Forde4 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Evin Lewis · b Matthew Forde | 32 | 21 | 4 | 1 | 152.38 |
|---|
 Jofra Archernot out2 fours · 3 sixes | not out | 38* | 17 | 2 | 3 | 223.53 |
|---|
 Adil Rashidnot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 6 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Forde1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 35 | 3 | 3.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Alzarri Joseph1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 45 | 2 | 4.50 | 1 | 0 |
| Romario Shepherd1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.1 | 1 | 33 | 2 | 5.35 | 0 | 0 |
| Gudakesh Motie0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 48 | 0 | 4.80 | 0 | 0 |
 Roston Chase1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 42 | 1 | 4.20 | 0 | 0 |
| Sherfane Rutherford0 maidens · 5 wides · 1 no-balls | 3.5 | 0 | 57 | 0 | 14.87 | 5 | 1 |
1-9 (Will Jacks, 2.3) · 2-10 (Jordan Cox, 3.4) · 3-14 (Jacob Bethell, 5.1) · 4-24 (Liam Livingstone, 9.5) · 5-94 (Sam Curran, 25.3) · 6-164 (Philip Salt, 40.3) · 7-207 (Dan Mousley, 46.1) · 8-238 (Jamie Overton, 49.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 3/0 |
| 2 | 2 | 5/0 |
| 3 | 5 | 10/1 |
| 4 | 0 | 10/2 |
| 5 | 4 | 14/2 |
| 6 | 4 | 18/3 |
| 7 | 0 | 18/3 |
| 8 | 0 | 18/3 |
| 9 | 1 | 19/3 |
| 10 | 5 | 24/4 |
| 11 | 5 | 29/4 |
| 12 | 6 | 35/4 |
| 13 | 6 | 41/4 |
| 14 | 2 | 43/4 |
| 15 | 3 | 46/4 |
| 16 | 3 | 49/4 |
| 17 | 5 | 54/4 |
| 18 | 4 | 58/4 |
| 19 | 6 | 64/4 |
| 20 | 4 | 68/4 |
| 21 | 7 | 75/4 |
| 22 | 4 | 79/4 |
| 23 | 5 | 84/4 |
| 24 | 1 | 85/4 |
| 25 | 9 | 94/4 |
| 26 | 0 | 94/5 |
| 27 | 4 | 98/5 |
| 28 | 6 | 104/5 |
| 29 | 5 | 109/5 |
| 30 | 3 | 112/5 |
| 31 | 5 | 117/5 |
| 32 | 3 | 120/5 |
| 33 | 8 | 128/5 |
| 34 | 4 | 132/5 |
| 35 | 2 | 134/5 |
| 36 | 9 | 143/5 |
| 37 | 4 | 147/5 |
| 38 | 7 | 154/5 |
| 39 | 6 | 160/5 |
| 40 | 3 | 163/5 |
| 41 | 1 | 164/6 |
| 42 | 12 | 176/6 |
| 43 | 5 | 181/6 |
| 44 | 6 | 187/6 |
| 45 | 15 | 202/6 |
| 46 | 5 | 207/6 |
| 47 | 7 | 214/7 |
| 48 | 19 | 233/7 |
| 49 | 5 | 238/8 |
| 50 | 25 | 263/8 |
Roston Chase: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jofra Archer: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Reece Topley: Kyle Andrews · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jamie Overton: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Sam Curran: Number 10 · CC BY 2.0
Shai Hope: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Will Jacks: Dave Morton · Public domain
Philip Salt: Dave Morton · Public domain
Adil Rashid: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Shimron Hetmyer: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
_(Archer_cropped).jpg){kind=link}
_-_Sam_Curran_(cropped).jpg){kind=link}
