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Photo: Dave Morton
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ICC Champions Trophy · 2024/25 · Men
2 Mar 2025 · ODI
Dubai International Cricket Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
India more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
India started on 58%; India batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will Youngbowled · Varun Chakravarthy3 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Varun Chakravarthy | 22 | 35 | 3 | 0 | 62.86 |
 Rachin Ravindracaught · Axar Patel · Hardik Pandya0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Axar Patel · b Hardik Pandya | 6 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
 Kane Williamsonstumped · KL Rahul · Axar Patel7 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · KL Rahul · b Axar Patel | 81 | 120 | 7 | 0 | 67.50 |
| Daryl Mitchelllbw · Kuldeep Yadav 1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Kuldeep Yadav | 17 | 35 | 1 |
India's chances ranged from 34% to 100% during the match (New Zealand: 0% to 66%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 0 |
| 48.57 |
 Tom Lathamlbw · Ravindra Jadeja0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Ravindra Jadeja | 14 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 70.00 |
|---|
| Glenn Phillipslbw · Varun Chakravarthy 0 fours · 1 sixes | lbw · b Varun Chakravarthy | 12 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 150.00 |
|---|
| Michael Bracewelllbw · Varun Chakravarthy 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Varun Chakravarthy | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
| Mitchell Santnerbowled · Varun Chakravarthy 1 fours · 2 sixes | bowled · b Varun Chakravarthy | 28 | 31 | 1 | 2 | 90.32 |
|---|
 Matt Henrycaught · Virat Kohli · Varun Chakravarthy0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Virat Kohli · b Varun Chakravarthy | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
 Kyle Jamiesonnot out0 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 9* | 4 | 0 | 1 | 225.00 |
|---|
 William O’Rourkebowled · Kuldeep Yadav0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Kuldeep Yadav | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 8 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mohammed Shami0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 3.75 | 0 | 0 |
 Hardik Pandya0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 22 | 1 | 5.50 | 0 | 1 |
 Axar Patel0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 32 | 1 | 3.20 | 0 | 0 |
| Varun Chakravarthy0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 42 | 5 | 4.20 | 2 | 0 |
 Kuldeep Yadav0 maidens · 6 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.3 | 0 | 56 | 2 | 5.89 | 6 | 0 |
 Ravindra Jadeja0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 36 | 1 | 4.50 | 0 | 0 |
1-17 (Rachin Ravindra, 4.0) · 2-49 (Will Young, 11.3) · 3-93 (Daryl Mitchell, 25.1) · 4-133 (Tom Latham, 32.2) · 5-151 (Glenn Phillips, 35.4) · 6-159 (Michael Bracewell, 37.1) · 7-169 (Kane Williamson, 41.0) · 8-195 (Mitchell Santner, 44.2) · 9-196 (Matt Henry, 44.4) · 10-205 (William O’Rourke, 45.3)
Recorded target: 250 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/0 |
| 2 | 5 | 9/0 |
| 3 | 1 | 10/0 |
| 4 | 7 | 17/1 |
| 5 | 6 | 23/1 |
| 6 | 5 | 28/1 |
| 7 | 2 | 30/1 |
| 8 | 5 | 35/1 |
| 9 | 2 | 37/1 |
| 10 | 7 | 44/1 |
| 11 | 4 | 48/1 |
| 12 | 1 | 49/2 |
| 13 | 1 | 50/2 |
| 14 | 3 | 53/2 |
| 15 | 2 | 55/2 |
| 16 | 2 | 57/2 |
| 17 | 7 | 64/2 |
| 18 | 3 | 67/2 |
| 19 | 6 | 73/2 |
| 20 | 7 | 80/2 |
| 21 | 3 | 83/2 |
| 22 | 2 | 85/2 |
| 23 | 2 | 87/2 |
| 24 | 5 | 92/2 |
| 25 | 1 | 93/2 |
| 26 | 11 | 104/3 |
| 27 | 6 | 110/3 |
| 28 | 4 | 114/3 |
| 29 | 8 | 122/3 |
| 30 | 3 | 125/3 |
| 31 | 3 | 128/3 |
| 32 | 4 | 132/3 |
| 33 | 5 | 137/4 |
| 34 | 3 | 140/4 |
| 35 | 4 | 144/4 |
| 36 | 8 | 152/5 |
| 37 | 7 | 159/5 |
| 38 | 2 | 161/6 |
| 39 | 1 | 162/6 |
| 40 | 3 | 165/6 |
| 41 | 4 | 169/7 |
| 42 | 7 | 176/7 |
| 43 | 8 | 184/7 |
| 44 | 9 | 193/7 |
| 45 | 5 | 198/9 |
| 46 | 7 | 205/10 |
Hardik Pandya: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Kyle Jamieson: Photographer - David Hollander · CC BY 3.0 nz
Matt Henry: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
Axar Patel: Anand Anil · CC BY-SA 4.0
KL Rahul: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Rohit Sharma: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
William O’Rourke: Dave Morton · Public domain
Kuldeep Yadav: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Will Young: Dave Morton · Public domain
Ravindra Jadeja: SR Vlogs · CC BY 3.0
Rachin Ravindra: JaumeBG · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tom Latham: Robert Drummond · CC0
Shubman Gill: Bollywood Hungama · CC BY 3.0
Mohammed Shami: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Virat Kohli: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Shreyas Iyer: 247 Entertainment · CC BY 3.0
Kane Williamson: Mark Lockett · CC BY-SA 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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