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Photo: PaddyBriggs
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England tour of New Zealand · 2024/25 · Men
6 Dec 2024 · Test
Basin Reserve, Wellington · Venue photographRecorded result
New Zealand more likely to win
Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Zak Crawleybowled · Matt Henry1 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Matt Henry | 17 | 23 | 1 | 1 | 73.91 |
 Ben Duckettcaught · Tom Latham · Matt Henry0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tom Latham · b Matt Henry | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Jacob Bethellcaught · Tom Blundell · Nathan Smith 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tom Blundell · b Nathan Smith | 16 | 28 | 3 | 0 | 57.14 |
 |
| caught · Daryl Mitchell · b Nathan Smith |
| 3 |
| 7 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 42.86 |
 Harry Brookrun out · Nathan Smith · Nathan Smith11 fours · 5 sixes | run out · Nathan Smith | 123 | 115 | 11 | 5 | 106.96 |
|---|
 Ollie Popecaught · Rachin Ravindra · William O’Rourke7 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Rachin Ravindra · b William O’Rourke | 66 | 78 | 7 | 1 | 84.62 |
|---|
 Ben Stokescaught · Tom Latham · William O’Rourke0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tom Latham · b William O’Rourke | 2 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 13.33 |
|---|
 Chris Woakescaught · Tom Blundell · William O’Rourke3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tom Blundell · b William O’Rourke | 18 | 43 | 3 | 0 | 41.86 |
|---|
| Gus Atkinsoncaught · Glenn Phillips · Nathan Smith 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Glenn Phillips · b Nathan Smith | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 133.33 |
|---|
 Brydon Carsecaught · William O’Rourke · Nathan Smith2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · William O’Rourke · b Nathan Smith | 9 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 112.50 |
|---|
| Shoaib Bashirnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 7 · wides: 12 · noballs: 2 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tim Southee0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 12.0 | 0 | 62 | 0 | 5.17 | 0 | 0 |
 Matt Henry5 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 15.0 | 5 | 43 | 2 | 2.87 | 0 | 0 |
| Nathan Smith1 maidens · 6 wides · 1 no-balls | 11.4 | 1 | 86 | 4 | 7.37 | 6 | 1 |
 William O’Rourke1 maidens · 6 wides · 1 no-balls | 12.0 | 1 | 49 | 3 | 4.08 | 6 | 1 |
| Glenn Phillips0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 32 | 0 | 8.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-12 (Ben Duckett, 3.2) · 2-21 (Zak Crawley, 7.1) · 3-26 (Joe Root, 10.1) · 4-43 (Jacob Bethell, 12.5) · 5-217 (Ollie Pope, 39.1) · 6-222 (Ben Stokes, 41.5) · 7-259 (Harry Brook, 52.1) · 8-263 (Gus Atkinson, 52.4) · 9-275 (Chris Woakes, 53.4) · 10-280 (Brydon Carse, 54.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | 10/0 |
| 2 | 0 | 10/0 |
| 3 | 2 | 12/0 |
| 4 | 0 | 12/1 |
| 5 | 5 | 17/1 |
| 6 | 0 | 17/1 |
| 7 | 4 | 21/1 |
| 8 | 0 | 21/2 |
| 9 | 0 | 21/2 |
| 10 | 5 | 26/2 |
| 11 | 1 | 27/3 |
| 12 | 6 | 33/3 |
| 13 | 14 | 47/4 |
| 14 | 3 | 50/4 |
| 15 | 20 | 70/4 |
| 16 | 7 | 77/4 |
| 17 | 4 | 81/4 |
| 18 | 1 | 82/4 |
| 19 | 11 | 93/4 |
| 20 | 1 | 94/4 |
| 21 | 5 | 99/4 |
| 22 | 7 | 106/4 |
| 23 | 1 | 107/4 |
| 24 | 12 | 119/4 |
| 25 | 3 | 122/4 |
| 26 | 2 | 124/4 |
| 27 | 4 | 128/4 |
| 28 | 2 | 130/4 |
| 29 | 16 | 146/4 |
| 30 | 8 | 154/4 |
| 31 | 4 | 158/4 |
| 32 | 6 | 164/4 |
| 33 | 4 | 168/4 |
| 34 | 5 | 173/4 |
| 35 | 10 | 183/4 |
| 36 | 7 | 190/4 |
| 37 | 11 | 201/4 |
| 38 | 9 | 210/4 |
| 39 | 7 | 217/4 |
| 40 | 2 | 219/5 |
| 41 | 1 | 220/5 |
| 42 | 2 | 222/6 |
| 43 | 5 | 227/6 |
| 44 | 6 | 233/6 |
| 45 | 6 | 239/6 |
| 46 | 0 | 239/6 |
| 47 | 1 | 240/6 |
| 48 | 3 | 243/6 |
| 49 | 11 | 254/6 |
| 50 | 1 | 255/6 |
| 51 | 4 | 259/6 |
| 52 | 0 | 259/6 |
| 53 | 12 | 271/8 |
| 54 | 4 | 275/9 |
| 55 | 5 | 280/10 |
Harry Brook: Dave Morton · Public domain
Brydon Carse: Dave Morton · Public domain
Ollie Pope: Kroome111 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Matt Henry: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ben Duckett: Charltonkyle · CC BY-SA 4.0
Joe Root: Dave Morton · Public domain
William O’Rourke: Dave Morton · Public domain
Zak Crawley: Dave Morton · Public domain
Rachin Ravindra: JaumeBG · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tom Latham: Robert Drummond · CC0
Chris Woakes: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tim Southee: YellowMonkey/Blnguyen · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kane Williamson: Mark Lockett · CC BY-SA 2.0
Ben Stokes: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Tom Blundell: www.davidmolloyphotography.com · CC BY 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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