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Photo: PaddyBriggs
Original photograph ↗ · Public domain
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
England tour of New Zealand · 2024/25 · Men
6 Dec 2024 · Test
Basin Reserve, Wellington · Venue photographRecorded result
New Zealand more likely to win
Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Innings 3
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Zak Crawleycaught · Devon Conway · Matt Henry2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Devon Conway · b Matt Henry | 8 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 114.29 |
 Ben Duckettbowled · Tim Southee6 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Tim Southee | 92 | 112 | 6 | 1 | 82.14 |
| Jacob Bethellcaught · Tom Blundell · Tim Southee 10 fours · 3 sixes | caught · Tom Blundell · b Tim Southee | 96 | 118 | 10 | 3 | 81.36 |
 |
| caught · Tom Blundell · b William O’Rourke |
| 106 |
| 130 |
| 11 |
| 0 |
| 81.54 |
 Harry Brookcaught · William O’Rourke · Glenn Phillips5 fours · 0 sixes | caught · William O’Rourke · b Glenn Phillips | 55 | 61 | 5 | 0 | 90.16 |
|---|
 Ollie Popecaught · Daryl Mitchell · Matt Henry0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Daryl Mitchell · b Matt Henry | 10 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 38.46 |
|---|
 Ben Stokesnot out1 fours · 2 sixes | not out | 49* | 42 | 1 | 2 | 116.67 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 8 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tim Southee0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 14.0 | 0 | 72 | 2 | 5.14 | 1 | 0 |
 Matt Henry0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 18.0 | 0 | 100 | 2 | 5.56 | 0 | 0 |
| Nathan Smith0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 16.0 | 0 | 74 | 0 | 4.63 | 1 | 0 |
 William O’Rourke0 maidens · 6 wides · 1 no-balls | 18.3 | 0 | 104 | 1 | 5.62 | 6 | 1 |
| Glenn Phillips0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 16.0 | 0 | 75 | 1 | 4.69 | 0 | 0 |
1-9 (Zak Crawley, 1.2) · 2-196 (Jacob Bethell, 38.0) · 3-211 (Ben Duckett, 41.2) · 4-306 (Harry Brook, 62.1) · 5-327 (Ollie Pope, 69.1) · 6-427 (Joe Root, 82.3)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 8/0 |
| 2 | 2 | 10/1 |
| 3 | 2 | 12/1 |
| 4 | 11 | 23/1 |
| 5 | 7 | 30/1 |
| 6 | 4 | 34/1 |
| 7 | 6 | 40/1 |
| 8 | 9 | 49/1 |
| 9 | 1 | 50/1 |
| 10 | 1 | 51/1 |
| 11 | 11 | 62/1 |
| 12 | 7 | 69/1 |
| 13 | 3 | 72/1 |
| 14 | 9 | 81/1 |
| 15 | 1 | 82/1 |
| 16 | 2 | 84/1 |
| 17 | 9 | 93/1 |
| 18 | 8 | 101/1 |
| 19 | 2 | 103/1 |
| 20 | 9 | 112/1 |
| 21 | 2 | 114/1 |
| 22 | 2 | 116/1 |
| 23 | 6 | 122/1 |
| 24 | 12 | 134/1 |
| 25 | 1 | 135/1 |
| 26 | 8 | 143/1 |
| 27 | 6 | 149/1 |
| 28 | 3 | 152/1 |
| 29 | 4 | 156/1 |
| 30 | 5 | 161/1 |
| 31 | 3 | 164/1 |
| 32 | 2 | 166/1 |
| 33 | 10 | 176/1 |
| 34 | 4 | 180/1 |
| 35 | 3 | 183/1 |
| 36 | 3 | 186/1 |
| 37 | 1 | 187/1 |
| 38 | 9 | 196/2 |
| 39 | 1 | 197/2 |
| 40 | 3 | 200/2 |
| 41 | 9 | 209/2 |
| 42 | 2 | 211/3 |
| 43 | 4 | 215/3 |
| 44 | 5 | 220/3 |
| 45 | 2 | 222/3 |
| 46 | 2 | 224/3 |
| 47 | 8 | 232/3 |
| 48 | 6 | 238/3 |
| 49 | 8 | 246/3 |
| 50 | 3 | 249/3 |
| 51 | 6 | 255/3 |
| 52 | 4 | 259/3 |
| 53 | 3 | 262/3 |
| 54 | 4 | 266/3 |
| 55 | 5 | 271/3 |
| 56 | 1 | 272/3 |
| 57 | 6 | 278/3 |
| 58 | 3 | 281/3 |
| 59 | 5 | 286/3 |
| 60 | 9 | 295/3 |
| 61 | 5 | 300/3 |
| 62 | 6 | 306/3 |
| 63 | 3 | 309/4 |
| 64 | 2 | 311/4 |
| 65 | 2 | 313/4 |
| 66 | 2 | 315/4 |
| 67 | 3 | 318/4 |
| 68 | 4 | 322/4 |
| 69 | 5 | 327/4 |
| 70 | 13 | 340/5 |
| 71 | 11 | 351/5 |
| 72 | 6 | 357/5 |
| 73 | 4 | 361/5 |
| 74 | 3 | 364/5 |
| 75 | 9 | 373/5 |
| 76 | 5 | 378/5 |
| 77 | 6 | 384/5 |
| 78 | 6 | 390/5 |
| 79 | 4 | 394/5 |
| 80 | 12 | 406/5 |
| 81 | 6 | 412/5 |
| 82 | 6 | 418/5 |
| 83 | 9 | 427/6 |
Harry Brook: Dave Morton · Public domain
Brydon Carse: Dave Morton · Public domain
Ollie Pope: Kroome111 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Matt Henry: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ben Duckett: Charltonkyle · CC BY-SA 4.0
Joe Root: Dave Morton · Public domain
William O’Rourke: Dave Morton · Public domain
Zak Crawley: Dave Morton · Public domain
Rachin Ravindra: JaumeBG · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tom Latham: Robert Drummond · CC0
Chris Woakes: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tim Southee: YellowMonkey/Blnguyen · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kane Williamson: Mark Lockett · CC BY-SA 2.0
Ben Stokes: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Tom Blundell: www.davidmolloyphotography.com · CC BY 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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