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Photo: PaddyBriggs
Original photograph ↗ · Public domain
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
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England tour of New Zealand · 2024/25 · Men
6 Dec 2024 · Test
Basin Reserve, Wellington · Venue photographRecorded result
New Zealand more likely to win
Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tom Lathambowled · Ben Stokes1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Ben Stokes | 17 | 32 | 1 | 0 | 53.13 |
| Devon Conwaycaught · Harry Brook · Gus Atkinson 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Harry Brook · b Gus Atkinson | 11 | 27 | 2 | 0 | 40.74 |
 Kane Williamsoncaught · Ollie Pope · Brydon Carse3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ollie Pope · b Brydon Carse | 37 | 56 | 3 | 0 | 66.07 |
 |
| caught · Brydon Carse · b Chris Woakes |
| 3 |
| 10 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 30.00 |
| Daryl Mitchellcaught · Ollie Pope · Brydon Carse 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ollie Pope · b Brydon Carse | 6 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
 William O’Rourkelbw · Brydon Carse0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Brydon Carse | 0 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Tom Blundellbowled · Brydon Carse2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Brydon Carse | 16 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 80.00 |
|---|
| Glenn Phillipsnot out 3 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 16* | 16 | 3 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Nathan Smithbowled · Gus Atkinson 2 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Gus Atkinson | 14 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 116.67 |
|---|
 Matt Henrycaught · Ben Duckett · Gus Atkinson0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ben Duckett · b Gus Atkinson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Tim Southeelbw · Gus Atkinson0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Gus Atkinson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 0 · noballs: 4 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Chris Woakes1 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 8.0 | 1 | 26 | 1 | 3.25 | 0 | 1 |
| Gus Atkinson0 maidens · 0 wides · 2 no-balls | 8.5 | 0 | 31 | 4 | 3.51 | 0 | 2 |
 Brydon Carse2 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 10.0 | 2 | 46 | 4 | 4.60 | 0 | 1 |
 Ben Stokes0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 21 | 1 | 2.63 | 0 | 0 |
1-18 (Devon Conway, 6.0) · 2-53 (Tom Latham, 14.2) · 3-64 (Rachin Ravindra, 17.5) · 4-74 (Kane Williamson, 21.2) · 5-79 (Daryl Mitchell, 23.2) · 6-95 (Tom Blundell, 29.4) · 7-96 (William O’Rourke, 30.0) · 8-125 (Nathan Smith, 34.3) · 9-125 (Matt Henry, 34.4) · 10-125 (Tim Southee, 34.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 2 | 2 | 4/0 |
| 3 | 2 | 6/0 |
| 4 | 1 | 7/0 |
| 5 | 4 | 11/0 |
| 6 | 7 | 18/1 |
| 7 | 4 | 22/1 |
| 8 | 8 | 30/1 |
| 9 | 3 | 33/1 |
| 10 | 9 | 42/1 |
| 11 | 2 | 44/1 |
| 12 | 2 | 46/1 |
| 13 | 4 | 50/1 |
| 14 | 3 | 53/1 |
| 15 | 2 | 55/2 |
| 16 | 8 | 63/2 |
| 17 | 1 | 64/2 |
| 18 | 0 | 64/3 |
| 19 | 3 | 67/3 |
| 20 | 4 | 71/3 |
| 21 | 3 | 74/3 |
| 22 | 0 | 74/4 |
| 23 | 5 | 79/4 |
| 24 | 5 | 84/5 |
| 25 | 1 | 85/5 |
| 26 | 1 | 86/5 |
| 27 | 2 | 88/5 |
| 28 | 0 | 88/5 |
| 29 | 1 | 89/5 |
| 30 | 7 | 96/7 |
| 31 | 1 | 97/7 |
| 32 | 11 | 108/7 |
| 33 | 5 | 113/7 |
| 34 | 8 | 121/7 |
| 35 | 4 | 125/10 |
Harry Brook: Dave Morton · Public domain
Brydon Carse: Dave Morton · Public domain
Ollie Pope: Kroome111 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Matt Henry: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ben Duckett: Charltonkyle · CC BY-SA 4.0
Joe Root: Dave Morton · Public domain
William O’Rourke: Dave Morton · Public domain
Zak Crawley: Dave Morton · Public domain
Rachin Ravindra: JaumeBG · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tom Latham: Robert Drummond · CC0
Chris Woakes: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tim Southee: YellowMonkey/Blnguyen · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kane Williamson: Mark Lockett · CC BY-SA 2.0
Ben Stokes: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Tom Blundell: www.davidmolloyphotography.com · CC BY 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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