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Photo: Mattbuck
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
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Australia tour of England · 2024 · Men
19 Sept 2024 · ODI
Trent Bridge · Venue photographRecorded result
Australia more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
England started on 35%; England batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mitchell Marshcaught · Brydon Carse · Matthew Potts2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Brydon Carse · b Matthew Potts | 10 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 71.43 |
 Travis Headnot out20 fours · 5 sixes | not out | 154* | 129 | 20 | 5 | 119.38 |
 Steve Smithcaught and bowled · Liam Livingstone0 fours · 3 sixes | caught and bowled · b Liam Livingstone | 32 | 28 | 0 | 3 | 114.29 |
 Cameron Greenbowled · Jacob Bethell5 fours · 0 sixes |
England's chances ranged from 0% to 81% during the match (Australia: 19% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| bowled · b Jacob Bethell |
| 32 |
| 32 |
| 5 |
| 0 |
| 100.00 |
 Marnus Labuschagnenot out7 fours · 2 sixes | not out | 77* | 61 | 7 | 2 | 126.23 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 4 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 6 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jofra Archer0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 53 | 0 | 8.83 | 3 | 0 |
 Matthew Potts0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 33 | 1 | 6.60 | 1 | 0 |
 Brydon Carse0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 42 | 0 | 8.40 | 0 | 0 |
 Will Jacks0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 29 | 0 | 4.83 | 0 | 0 |
 Adil Rashid0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 59 | 0 | 5.90 | 0 | 0 |
| Liam Livingstone0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 75 | 1 | 8.33 | 1 | 0 |
| Jacob Bethell0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 20 | 1 | 6.67 | 1 | 0 |
1-20 (Mitchell Marsh, 3.3) · 2-96 (Steve Smith, 15.3) · 3-169 (Cameron Green, 26.1)
Recorded target: 316 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 6/0 |
| 3 | 10 | 16/0 |
| 4 | 6 | 22/1 |
| 5 | 8 | 30/1 |
| 6 | 16 | 46/1 |
| 7 | 1 | 47/1 |
| 8 | 13 | 60/1 |
| 9 | 8 | 68/1 |
| 10 | 1 | 69/1 |
| 11 | 8 | 77/1 |
| 12 | 2 | 79/1 |
| 13 | 1 | 80/1 |
| 14 | 11 | 91/1 |
| 15 | 1 | 92/1 |
| 16 | 10 | 102/2 |
| 17 | 9 | 111/2 |
| 18 | 2 | 113/2 |
| 19 | 9 | 122/2 |
| 20 | 3 | 125/2 |
| 21 | 2 | 127/2 |
| 22 | 7 | 134/2 |
| 23 | 9 | 143/2 |
| 24 | 9 | 152/2 |
| 25 | 7 | 159/2 |
| 26 | 10 | 169/2 |
| 27 | 4 | 173/3 |
| 28 | 8 | 181/3 |
| 29 | 3 | 184/3 |
| 30 | 6 | 190/3 |
| 31 | 6 | 196/3 |
| 32 | 4 | 200/3 |
| 33 | 3 | 203/3 |
| 34 | 17 | 220/3 |
| 35 | 5 | 225/3 |
| 36 | 8 | 233/3 |
| 37 | 18 | 251/3 |
| 38 | 12 | 263/3 |
| 39 | 3 | 266/3 |
| 40 | 10 | 276/3 |
| 41 | 13 | 289/3 |
| 42 | 6 | 295/3 |
| 43 | 15 | 310/3 |
| 44 | 7 | 317/3 |
Mitchell Marsh: www.davidmolloyphotography.com · CC BY 2.0
Harry Brook: Dave Morton · Public domain
Jofra Archer: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Brydon Carse: Dave Morton · Public domain
Marnus Labuschagne: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Matthew Potts: Dave Morton · Public domain
Ben Duckett: Charltonkyle · CC BY-SA 4.0
Adam Zampa: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Travis Head: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Steve Smith: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Jamie Smith: Dave Morton · Public domain
Alex Carey: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Will Jacks: Dave Morton · Public domain
Philip Salt: Dave Morton · Public domain
Adil Rashid: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Cameron Green: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sean Abbott: Naparazzi · CC BY-SA 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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