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Photo: Mattbuck
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
Australia tour of England · 2024 · Men
19 Sept 2024 · ODI
Trent Bridge · Venue photographRecorded result
Australia more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
England started on 35%; England batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Philip Saltbowled · Ben Dwarshuis2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Ben Dwarshuis | 17 | 24 | 2 | 0 | 70.83 |
 Ben Duckettcaught and bowled · Marnus Labuschagne11 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Marnus Labuschagne | 95 | 91 | 11 | 0 | 104.40 |
 Will Jackscaught · Steve Smith · Adam Zampa5 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Steve Smith · b Adam Zampa | 62 | 56 | 5 | 2 | 110.71 |
 Harry Brookcaught and bowled · Marnus Labuschagne2 fours · 3 sixes |
England's chances ranged from 0% to 81% during the match (Australia: 19% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught and bowled · b Marnus Labuschagne |
| 39 |
| 31 |
| 2 |
| 3 |
| 125.81 |
 Jamie Smithcaught · C Connolly · Matthew Short2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · C Connolly · b Matthew Short | 23 | 19 | 2 | 1 | 121.05 |
|---|
| Liam Livingstonecaught · Cameron Green · Adam Zampa 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Cameron Green · b Adam Zampa | 13 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 81.25 |
|---|
| Jacob Bethellcaught · Marnus Labuschagne · Travis Head 3 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Marnus Labuschagne · b Travis Head | 35 | 34 | 3 | 1 | 102.94 |
|---|
 Brydon Carsecaught · Cameron Green · Adam Zampa0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Cameron Green · b Adam Zampa | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 22.22 |
|---|
 Jofra Archercaught · C Connolly · Marnus Labuschagne1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · C Connolly · b Marnus Labuschagne | 4 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
 Matthew Pottsnot out0 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 11* | 10 | 0 | 1 | 110.00 |
|---|
 Adil Rashidcaught · Marnus Labuschagne · Travis Head0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Marnus Labuschagne · b Travis Head | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 5 · wides: 8 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Hardie0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 27 | 0 | 4.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Ben Dwarshuis0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 18 | 1 | 4.50 | 0 | 0 |
 Sean Abbott0 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 50 | 0 | 10.00 | 2 | 1 |
| Matthew Short0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 68 | 1 | 6.80 | 2 | 0 |
 Cameron Green0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 25 | 0 | 6.25 | 2 | 0 |
 Adam Zampa1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 49 | 3 | 4.90 | 0 | 0 |
 Marnus Labuschagne0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 39 | 3 | 6.50 | 1 | 0 |
 Travis Head0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.4 | 0 | 34 | 2 | 7.29 | 1 | 0 |
1-48 (Philip Salt, 7.5) · 2-168 (Will Jacks, 24.3) · 3-213 (Ben Duckett, 32.4) · 4-232 (Harry Brook, 35.0) · 5-256 (Jamie Smith, 37.5) · 6-272 (Liam Livingstone, 42.1) · 7-278 (Brydon Carse, 44.3) · 8-288 (Jofra Archer, 46.2) · 9-315 (Jacob Bethell, 49.3) · 10-315 (Adil Rashid, 49.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 3/0 |
| 2 | 4 | 7/0 |
| 3 | 4 | 11/0 |
| 4 | 4 | 15/0 |
| 5 | 8 | 23/0 |
| 6 | 7 | 30/0 |
| 7 | 16 | 46/0 |
| 8 | 3 | 49/1 |
| 9 | 8 | 57/1 |
| 10 | 2 | 59/1 |
| 11 | 3 | 62/1 |
| 12 | 10 | 72/1 |
| 13 | 3 | 75/1 |
| 14 | 5 | 80/1 |
| 15 | 9 | 89/1 |
| 16 | 2 | 91/1 |
| 17 | 9 | 100/1 |
| 18 | 10 | 110/1 |
| 19 | 9 | 119/1 |
| 20 | 8 | 127/1 |
| 21 | 9 | 136/1 |
| 22 | 15 | 151/1 |
| 23 | 6 | 157/1 |
| 24 | 8 | 165/1 |
| 25 | 5 | 170/2 |
| 26 | 2 | 172/2 |
| 27 | 3 | 175/2 |
| 28 | 10 | 185/2 |
| 29 | 3 | 188/2 |
| 30 | 13 | 201/2 |
| 31 | 3 | 204/2 |
| 32 | 7 | 211/2 |
| 33 | 3 | 214/3 |
| 34 | 3 | 217/3 |
| 35 | 15 | 232/4 |
| 36 | 8 | 240/4 |
| 37 | 8 | 248/4 |
| 38 | 8 | 256/5 |
| 39 | 5 | 261/5 |
| 40 | 4 | 265/5 |
| 41 | 4 | 269/5 |
| 42 | 3 | 272/5 |
| 43 | 0 | 272/6 |
| 44 | 5 | 277/6 |
| 45 | 1 | 278/7 |
| 46 | 9 | 287/7 |
| 47 | 4 | 291/8 |
| 48 | 6 | 297/8 |
| 49 | 7 | 304/8 |
| 50 | 11 | 315/10 |
Mitchell Marsh: www.davidmolloyphotography.com · CC BY 2.0
Harry Brook: Dave Morton · Public domain
Jofra Archer: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Brydon Carse: Dave Morton · Public domain
Marnus Labuschagne: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Matthew Potts: Dave Morton · Public domain
Ben Duckett: Charltonkyle · CC BY-SA 4.0
Adam Zampa: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Travis Head: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Steve Smith: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Jamie Smith: Dave Morton · Public domain
Alex Carey: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Will Jacks: Dave Morton · Public domain
Philip Salt: Dave Morton · Public domain
Adil Rashid: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Cameron Green: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sean Abbott: Naparazzi · CC BY-SA 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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