South AfricaversusIndia

Too close to call

Why

• On results in T20 internationals so far, India rate stronger than South Africa (1,648 vs 1,600 on our results rating)
• South Africa are playing at home in South Africa
• In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, South Africa won 6 and India won 4

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

South Africa started on 51%; South Africa batted first.

South Africa's chances ranged from 36% to 100% during the match (India: 0% to 64%).

Biggest swings

1. 2nd inns 2.2: E Marx to Shafali Verma, Shafali Verma out. South Africa up from 44% to 57%.
2. 2nd inns 3.3: A Khaka to JI Rodrigues, JI Rodrigues out. South Africa up from 52% to 66%.
3. 2nd inns 12.2: N Mlaba to H Kaur, H Kaur out. South Africa up from 66% to 78%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.