South AfricaversusIndia

27 Apr 2026 · T20

Recorded result

South Africa won by 23 runs

South Africa20.0 overs155/6 India20.0 overs132/8 Willowmoore Park, Benoni ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Too close to call

52%South Africa48%India

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, India rate stronger than South Africa (1,648 vs 1,600 on our results rating)
South Africa are playing at home in South Africa
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, South Africa won 6 and India won 4

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

South Africa started on 51%; South Africa batted first.

South Africa’s chance of winning (%) · India is the rest

South Africa's chances ranged from 36% to 100% during the match (India: 0% to 64%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 2.2: E Marx to Shafali Verma, Shafali Verma out. South Africa up from 44% to 57%.
2nd inns 3.3: A Khaka to JI Rodrigues, JI Rodrigues out. South Africa up from 52% to 66%.
2nd inns 12.2: N Mlaba to H Kaur, H Kaur out. South Africa up from 66% to 78%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.