NorwayversusHungary

17 Aug 2025 · T20

Recorded result

Norway won by 32 runs

Norway20.0 overs172/8 Hungary20.0 overs140/8 Stubberudmyra Cricket Ground, Oslo ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Norway more likely to win

64%Norway36%Hungary

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Norway rate stronger than Hungary (1,526 vs 1,470 on our results rating)
Norway are playing at home in Norway

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Norway started on 62%; Norway batted first.

Norway’s chance of winning (%) · Hungary is the rest

Norway's chances ranged from 45% to 100% during the match (Hungary: 0% to 55%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 2.6: Vinay Ravi to V Ravindran, V Ravindran out. Norway up from 53% to 65%.
2nd inns 3.4: Ahmadullah Shinwari to Zeeshan Kukikhel, Zeeshan Kukikhel out. Norway up from 63% to 75%.
2nd inns 9.2: AJ Parmar to Abbas Ghani, Abbas Ghani out. Norway up from 62% to 74%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Norway172/8 Hungary140/8

Innings 1

Norway

172/820.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Norway batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Khizer Ahmedlbw · Abbas Ghani 3 fours · 1 sixes	lbw · b Abbas Ghani	31	27	3	1	114.81
Wahidullah Sahakcaught · V Ravindran · Kamran Wahid 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · V Ravindran · b Kamran Wahid	2	3	0	0	66.67
Walid Ghauricaught · SA Mohandas · Kamran Wahid 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · SA Mohandas · b Kamran Wahid	13	13	1	0	100.00
D Abeyrathnabowled · Amal Jacob 3 fours · 2 sixes	bowled · b Amal Jacob	38	38	3	2	100.00
Faisal Razacaught · Abbas Ghani · Ali Nawaz 2 fours · 2 sixes	caught · Abbas Ghani · b Ali Nawaz	29

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
SA Mohandas0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	22	0	5.50	0	0
Kamran Wahid0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	24	3	6.00	0	0
Amal Jacob0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	32	1	8.00	3	0
Abbas Ghani0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	48	1	12.00	2	0
Ali Nawaz0 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	46	2	11.50	2	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	3	3/0
2	10	13/1
3	2	15/1
4	4	19/1
5	13	32/1
6	2	34/2
7	4	38/2
8	8	46/2
9	3	49/2
10	9	58/2
11	13	71/3
12	6	77/3
13	11	88/3
14	9	97/3
15	15	112/3
16	9	121/4
17	9	130/6
18	23	153/6
19	11	164/7
20	8	172/8

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